You can even look at last night's game, where there was some kind of communication gaffe. ESPN claims the NFL provides all the headsets. Then the stadiums are responsible for making sure the headsets can maintain a wireless signal without interference. The Patriots owner Kraft also owns the stadium and the infrastructure. What was weird to me was how other NFL coaches were saying that the headsets would fail on third and long of their own team's drive. At that point, the NFL is supposed to deactivate the Patriots' headsets to make the teams equal. But, wouldn't you know that the problem often cleared up as soon as an official was about to tell the Pats to shut down their headsets? That just seems too well-timed to be a random glitch.
In looking at the week 1 games, I didn't know whether I was crazy to see so many road teams who looked like favorites. Sometimes you just have a "gut feeling," or try to rely on intuition. I did the OCD thing and compared stats from last year's regular season to see if my hunches were backed up by those "metrics." The records below represent 2014. Here's some of what I found:
Steelers (11-5) vs Patriots (12-4)
Pick: Patriots
I know the game is already over, but I submitted a pick of Patriots before kickoff. At that point, I was mainly looking at the rosters and the suspensions for the Steelers.
Packers (12-4) vs Bears (5-11)
Pick: Packers
The Packers lead pretty much EVERY metric, and they swept both games last year by at least 21 points each time.
Chiefs (9-7) vs Texans (9-7)
Pick: Chiefs
If I were making a list of "coin flip" games, this would probably be the second game on that list. The Texans were 5-3 at home last season, and the Chiefs were 3-5 as a road team. The Chiefs were in the bottom third of the league in offensive yards, but still managed to convert those yards into 22.1 points per game. Their defense also managed to allow fewer points than the Texans. The Texans are beasts at trying to take the ball away (34 turnovers last year), but the Chiefs take care of the ball as well as elite teams (only 13 giveaways).
In the end, I just think the Chiefs offense added a few more weapons (Maclin, Kelce becoming the #1 TE), while the Texans are looking like they'll start Brian Hoyer, throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts, with Alfred Blue trying to make up for Foster's injury.
In other words, I wouldn't be surprised by a 17-16 score or even overtime.
Browns (7-9) vs Jets (4-12)
Pick: Jets
I put a question mark next to the Jets, so I doubt I was very confident. The Browns were actually better on the road (3-5) in 2014 than the Jets were at home (2-6). The Jets had a huge disparity between finishing #6 in yards allowed, but opponents converting those yards into 25.1 points per game. I tried to look back at box scores and see how that was possible. My only guess is allowing long returns on special teams, or throwing picks within the defensive half of the field. The Browns were only able to muster 18.7 points per game last year, and they won't have Josh Gordon or even a clear #1 running back.
I think I just looked at the Jets roster and saw that they look better on both sides of the ball than last year (Brandon Marshall, solid backfield, Revis Island, Cromartie ...). Their defense was surprisingly awful at forcing turnovers last year (only 13), and the Browns surprised me with 29 takeaways. I don't know if it will come down to the turnover battle, though.
Colts (11-5) vs Bills (9-7)
Pick: Colts
In my notes, I see the word "intuition" for that choice. The Colts were 3rd in offensive yards, and turned that into 28.6 points/game. The Bills were 4th at not allowing teams to gain yards, and only gave up 18.1 points/game. One of those stats would have to win out in the game, right? The Bills' 30 takeaways almost matches how the Colts gave the ball away 31 times. I'm sort of thinking that the Colts allowing 23.1 points/game could be due to turnovers, since they were #10 at not allowing yards to other teams. If it does become a shootout, though, you'd have to figure that the Colts have too many offensive weapons, and the Bills don't exactly light up the scoreboard (21.4 points/game).
Dolphins (8-8) vs Redskins (4-12)
Pick: Dolphins
I wrote "intuition" again! They were actually very close together in offensive yardage last year, but the Dolphins scored 24.3 points/game, and the Redskins were down at 18.8 points/game. Defensively, I don't know how the Dolphins ranked #12 in yardage while giving up 23.3 points. The Redskins were worse in both categories, though. Then, you had the Redskins giving the ball away almost twice per game while forcing a below average number of turnovers.
The Dolphins are a popular pick in the eliminator/survival game (selecting only one winning team per week). I was also looking at the Bengals, and a team from this next matchup:
Panthers (7-8-1) vs Jaguars (3-13)
Pick: Panthers
I think both teams have some questions as far as injuries and depth at offensive skill positions. The Panthers just look better in every measurable category.
Seahawks (12-4) vs Rams (6-10)
Pick: Seahawks
The interesting thing here is how the Rams won the 2014 version of this game by a slim margin, 28-26. The rest of the metrics are all saying Seattle is obviously a better team.
Saints (7-9) vs Cardinals (11-5)
Pick: Cardinals
I have them listed with a question mark. Somehow, I had forgotten that the Cardinals had a really good record last season. They lost to a below .500 team in the playoffs, though.
The Cardinals were 7-1 in home games last season. The Saints were only 4-4 on the road (actually better than their home record!). The Cardinals were two games better against NFC teams, but I'm not sure which divisions each one played against.
When you look at points per game, there were about 38 total points scored in a 2014 game featuring the Cardinals. For the Saints, it was all about shootouts of 51 total points or more. The Saints couldn't have been much different on offense or defense, either. They were #1 in total yards gained, combined with #31 in yards allowed! Meanwhile, the Cardinals didn't really have a prolific offense (#24 in yards), but was that because of injuries? They did take care of the ball (17 giveaways), and the Saints only took it away 17 times. The Saints were really generous with their giveaways (31), which was even more than how often the Cardinals took the ball away (25 times).
In the end, I like the Cardinals just a little better at home, and I think the Saints will struggle to repeat as the #1 offense without Jimmy Graham.
Lions (11-5) vs Chargers (9-7)
Pick: Lions
I didn't sound too confident here. The Chargers were a decent home team in 2014 (5-3). These teams were almost identical offensively. Surprisingly, they were both in the top 9 of fewest yards allowed, but the Lions were way up at the top (#2) and gave up fewer points. In the turnover battle, there's also a big difference. The Lions only gave the ball up 20 times, which was actually more than the Chargers took it away. The Chargers turned it over 23 times, and the Lions took it away 27 times.
How many road favorites is that now?
Titans (2-14) vs Buccaneers (2-14)
Pick: Buccaneers
THIS was the game that had me scratching my head, trying to find any differences between the teams. I mean, you had the Titans going 1-7 on the road last year, and the Bucs were 0-8 at home. BUT, there was a strange week where the Bucs went into Pittsburgh and beat a Steelers team who won possibly the most competitive division from last season.
Both teams were almost ranked the same offensively and defensively. The Titans allowed 27.4 points to other teams, but the Bucs only scored 17.3 points in each game. The Bucs allowed 25.6 points each contest, and the Titans were one of the lowest scoring teams in the whole league (15.9 average).
The Titans only took possession away 16 times, while the Bucs gave it away 33 times. The opposite give and take was almost even.
For me, it seemed a little wiser to favor the home team, with Lovie Smith, and the depth they have at offensive skill positions (even though Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin didn't play like it). That mainly bugs me, because I see Mariota (Titans) as the guy who has a high level of character, while Jameis Winston acts like the spoiled athlete who gets court cases dismissed or "forgets" to pay for crab legs.
Really, though, this could almost be a coin flip!
Bengals (10-5-1) vs Raiders (3-13)
Pick: Bengals
I'm not sure if I'd want to use the Bengals this early in eliminator, but there's no comparison I was able to find where the Raiders should be able to win this game.
Ravens (10-6) vs Broncos (12-4)
Pick: Broncos
The Broncos went 8-0 at home last year, but didn't they lose their only playoff game in Denver?
I have Denver's offense listed at 403 yards and 30.1 points each game, while the Ravens only give up 337 yards and 18.9 points on average. Something would have to give there. What surprised me a little was how Denver's defense could potentially hold the Ravens 60 yards and 3.5 points below their season averages.
The turnover ratios were similar, so I went with the team that seems to have better depth at receiver and the strong home record.
Giants (6-10) vs Cowboys (12-4)
Pick: Cowboys
Yes, that pick pains me a little bit, but I'm just trying to be "rational" and not play favorites. Dallas won both games last season by an average score of around 31-25. So, within one possession or TD each time, but still two losses.
Comparing offense to defense, it looks like both teams could expect to do as well as their 2014 averages:
Giants 367 yards on offense, Dallas 355 yards allowed
Cowboys 384 yards on offense, Giants 376 yards allowed
That was based on last year, and the Cowboys did have a HUGE roster change at running back, so I'm not sure how to factor that in to the equation. It just seems like the Giants didn't upgrade that much of their own roster, and I don't see any pass rushers who could pressure Tony Romo (if Dallas had to throw the ball more often).
Eagles (10-6) vs Falcons (6-10)
Pick: Eagles
It shocked me to see the Falcons with a 3-5 home record last season. When he first entered the league, I remember that Matt Ryan was almost undefeated in home games. Plus, they're a dome team!! I doubt you could blame it on weather conditions.
The matchup between the Eagles offense (397 yards, 29.6 points) looks like that's what Atlanta usually gives up (398 yards, 26.1 points). Then again, the reverse is pretty even, too! Atlanta's offense can put up 378 yards with 23.8 points (not a good conversion rate for moving the ball that much), and the Eagles surrendered 376 yards, 25.0 points.
It surprised me how much the Eagles turn the ball over. In fact, they LED the league in that department in 2014.
When I went in and looked at the rosters, though, I just don't see the Falcons having much running back depth (Tevin Coleman? Devonta Freeman?), and their pass rush struggled last season, so the Eagles could just play ball control with Murray and take their time throwing.
Vikings (7-9) vs 49ers (8-8)
Pick: 49ers
I think I saw that the Vikings are the betting favorite? Is that against the spread, or they're expected to win outright? You can tell how much I ignore betting odds.
It's hard to assess the Vikings, because their stats from 2014 barely account for Adrian Peterson. What I do see is that both teams play really close games. The 49ers were an OK 4-4 at home last year, and 5-1 against NFC teams that play outside their division.
Comparing the rosters, it looks like the 49ers should have some depth, but also a few questions. I mean, Carlos Hyde is unproven. Reggie Bush went from 1,500 total yards in 2014 to 550 total yards last year. Vernon Davis dropped to career lows in a bunch of categories, only averaging 9 yards or so per catch. Their defense may not play like it did last year, but they still have Navarro Bowman in the middle.
So, in the close games, I'd tend to favor a home team.
By my count, that looks like nine road teams are expected to win? That number sounds pretty high, but I've gotta trust the statistics, at least for this week.
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