Broncos (1-0) vs Chiefs (1-0)
Pick: Broncos
Based on the part of the game I watched, and then reading the final report, the Chiefs won everything but the last minutes of the first half and the 4th quarter? I was surprised how aggressive they got with a 14-7 lead, calling a pass play that was intercepted and put the Broncos in position to tie the game. The Chiefs seem to have more offensive potential this season, but they weren't as careful with turnovers compared to last season.
Patriots (1-0) vs Bills (1-0)
Pick: Patriots
Why did Heath Evans of NFL Network say the Bills would start this season 9-0? I'm not sure of the last time they beat Brady in Buffalo.
Texans (0-1) vs Panthers (1-0)
Pick: Panthers
I think this came down to favoring a home team. Are the Panthers the best team in the NFC South? They did "win" the division last year (it seemed like no team wanted to win it or finish above .500). Then again, I'm looking at who they've played so far: Jaguars, and a Texans team with some room to improve offensively.
Cardinals (1-0) vs Bears (0-1)
Pick: Cardinals
It's strange to suddenly view the Cardinals as a top 5 NFC team. The Bears have something freaky happening with hamstring injuries. I just hope Matt Forte can stay healthy for fantasy purposes.
Chargers (1-0) vs Bengals (1-0)
Pick: Bengals
The numbers were very similar, so I gave an edge to some of the Bengals' offensive options, and I view them as having the better defense (plus playing at home).
Titans (1-0) vs Browns (0-1)
Pick: Titans
This was the start of a losing skid for me. I didn't make a pick right away, because both teams look so different from the numbers they posted in 2014. I put a little too much stock in Mariota's debut and the way he threw for 4 TDs on just 16 pass attempts. The Browns played much better coverage than the Bucs, and Mariota was reckless on some of his running plays (taking the hit instead of sliding down).
Lions (0-1) vs Vikings (0-1)
Pick: Lions
I think the Lions are one of only two teams not to play a home game yet. Somehow they're 0-2? I don't view them as being much worse than the 11-5 team from last year, but it's possible they're not the same team with the big names on defense leaving.
Buccaneers (0-1) vs Saints (0-1)
Pick: Saints
In ESPN's eliminator game, I remember over 38% of the entries favoring the Saints this week. I saved them for later, because they still have a home game against the Jaguars late in the season.
Just focusing on this game, how do you figure EITHER team out? The Saints were the #1 offense of 2014, but are there any stats on whether those were "garbage time" yards trying to make up for the #31 defense and all the points they surrendered?
The Bucs have a rookie QB, and hardly any names I recognize on defense.
Last year, the games went to overtime or a final possession, so it almost entered coin flip territory for me. I just thought Brees might pull it out at home.
Falcons (1-0) vs Giants (0-1)
Pick: Giants
The "logic" would tell you that the Giants lost a game they should've won, and the Falcons were on short rest, having to travel (yet not changing time zones).
The numbers looked really close for me. This same game last year in East Rutherford ended in a 30-20 Giants win, so how could you go wrong picking them here? That's why they play the games, right?
49ers (1-0) vs Steelers (1-0)
Pick: Steelers
I was pretty confident about this one. The contrast between both teams seems almost unfair. Didn't the Steelers just have nine days of rest? Then you make the 49ers follow up the late, late Monday night game with a road trip and a 1 PM Eastern start (10:00 AM in their home time zone)?
Rams (1-0) vs Redskins (0-1)
Pick: Rams
The numbers were there, but obviously not the result. This same game (including location) finished 24-0 Rams last season.
I had some other rooting interests, which I'll reveal at the end of these standard picks.
Dolphins (1-0) vs Jaguars (0-1)
Pick: Dolphins
How is it still 20-20 late in the 4th quarter?
Ravens (1-0) vs Raiders (0-1)
Pick: Ravens
I almost skipped the analysis here, because I figured the numbers would all favor the Ravens. Look at the actual game, though. The Raiders have put 30 points on the board?!!
Cowboys (1-0) vs Eagles (0-1)
Pick: Eagles
It's hard to explain this one. The season series last year was split, and the road teams went 2-0. The points and yards weren't similar to how each team played in their other 14 games. They basically showed how either one could score a ton of points.
Then I tried to account for how much their lineups have changed on offense, which is hard to do because of a small sample size.
So, obviously you'd figure that it's a low scoring battle today, right? My pick doesn't look good as of now.
Seahawks (0-1) vs Packers (1-0)
Pick: Packers
I may have deliberately IGNORED the numbers here. The pick technically isn't locked in yet. What does stick out to me is how the Packers usually score 38.2 points on 419.1 yards at home.
The arguments for Seattle are pretty good. They swept both games from last season (both in Seattle), and even in the NFC championship, with the big lead in terms of points, the Packers were held to only 306 total yards on offense. If Seattle still won the game where they were -3 in giveaway/takeaway, that's pretty scary.
Jets (1-0) vs Colts (0-1)
Pick: Colts
One neat piece of trivia is how every AFC East team started 1-0. There were no divisions with four 0-1 teams.
The Colts defense does look vulnerable, but they tend to allow even more yards and points than the Jets typically score. There are "shut down" cornerbacks on both teams, so it may be a defensive struggle. As much as the Colts liked giving the ball away last year, the Jets were last place in takeaways (not in week 1, though).
Other picks:
Eliminator - Dolphins
Record Breaker - Alfred Morris, Redskins vs Rams
As of now, the Dolphins might need OVERTIME to beat the Jaguars. Who saw that coming? It was a while before they managed to even tie the score.
With Record Breaker, the idea is that you can choose one individual runner per week to challenge Eric Dickerson's mark of 2,105 yards. You need to keep up about a 130 yard pace in every game (I'm not sure how they'll handle the idea of a "bye week" - maybe you can't make a pick in Dickerson's bye week from 1985?). I made a pretty good pick last week if you were going by a TEAM's rushing yards. The Bengals had more than 120 of those, but only 63 got credited to Jeremy Hill, who kept splitting carries.
What I saw in Alfred Morris was high usage, and a matchup against a defense that just allowed 120+ yards to the Seahawks. The Redskins did have 182 rushing yards today, and Morris did carry the ball 18 times, but his teammate had more than 2/3 of the rushing yards!
Essentially, it's not that I've been wrong in thinking a team would be able to run the ball effectively against a certain opponent. I just picked a team that split the yards between too many runners.
Well, that eliminator pick isn't looking so good! What a weird week.
All I can really do is try to learn from the running back issue.
Strangely enough, I used my two backup wide receivers in fantasy, and we're still on pace to win comfortably (week 1 was a 58 point loss). Things seem to even out over time.
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