Let's see what I was thinking before the games were actually played:
Ravens (0-3) vs Steelers (2-1)
Pick: Steelers
Last season, this series started out where the home teams won both games. Then the Steelers hosted a playoff game, but that finished as a Ravens' upset. The Steelers even controlled the ball in that playoff game (35:17 time of possession), but I guess three turnovers were too much to overcome.
Besides just what the stats say, I might need to start considering how hardly any team goes 0-16 (only one in league history?), and an 0-3 team (especially one that went to the divisional round last year) probably wants to try and improve to 1-3. I still felt like, with a healthy Roethlisberger, the Steelers probably would've won this by at least one touchdown.
Jets (2-1) vs Dolphins (1-2)
Pick: Jets
This series didn't even START until week 13 of last season. It was hard to find a consistent pattern for how those games were decided. In the game at the Meadowlands, the Jets were ahead in total yards and time of possession. Turnovers were even. The Dolphins still won by a field goal. In the game at Miami, the turnovers were exactly even again, but the Jets had advantages in yards and time of possession again. That time, they won pretty handily (by 13 points) after I think they were trailing by double digits.
I think I saw here that the Dolphins were a team that lost to the Jaguars, and they couldn't really stop other teams from running. The Dolphins' offense is struggling to run the ball, and the Jets are a pretty good defense, not to mention all the turnovers they can generate.
Jaguars (1-2) vs Colts (1-2)
Pick: Colts
This series finished 2-0 Colts last year, with a combined score of 67-20. Despite those big differences between the teams, this particular game seemed in doubt (at least to me) because Andrew Luck was questionable up to Saturday night before being held out of the game. I had to trust that the Colts play well at home, and the Jaguars are on at least a nine game road losing skid.
Did you see the "highlights" of the real game, though? I think the Jaguars missed THREE kicks that would've given them the win.
Giants (1-2) vs Bills (2-1)
Pick: Bills
It's not that I LIKE picking against my team! They've just been hard to figure out. Both of these clubs actually allow more yards than they've gained, despite how they're scoring more points than other teams have been able to muster against them.
I thought the key matchup was the Giants defending the run against what I think was the #1 rushing offense coming into this week. For as many yards as the Giants are giving up through the air, I'm actually impressed by their run defense. They only face about 22 attempts per game, but then they limit those carries to about 3.4 yards per attempt. The Bills were advancing about 4.7 yards per carry. I thought they might meet somewhere in the middle, and then the defense might make some key plays for the Bills.
Also, remember when I was asking how the Bills would score their points this season? Well, as of week 3, they were increasing their output in every game! They peaked at 41 points against the Dolphins. I knew they had a few key injuries on offense, but I saw how about 10 different players have scored some kind of touchdown for them this season, so it's not like you could just shut down one guy.
We know how the game turned out, though.
Panthers (3-0) vs Buccaneers (1-2)
Pick: Panthers
You'd have to read my other really long post about "Statistical Burnout" to find out how this game was almost statistically perfect in terms of making it easy to predict. Offensively, the Panthers are within 5 yards of their passing and rushing averages from 2014. They've gained almost the same number of total yards as last season. Their defense is actually 25 yards better than in 2014.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers might be 16 offensive yards better than 2014, but that still puts them 7 yards below what Carolina usually allows. Their defense gives up almost exactly the number of yards that the Panthers gain against other teams.
If you looked at the 2014 series, it was only close in the final scores. The Panthers had a 39-31 advantage. They were +5 in turnovers and held the ball for 72 minutes and 35 seconds.
Eagles (1-2) vs Redskins (1-2)
Pick: Eagles
I had this pick blank for the longest time after reviewing all of the statistics. I'm really not sure how to assess either team. The Eagles dismantled an offense that was already running smoothly. The Redskins are probably one decent quarterback away from being a playoff team.
This series didn't make much sense last season. Both teams were even in turnovers (each game, and the series as a whole). The Redskins outgained the Eagles by 132 yards in Philadelphia, and controlled the clock, but the Eagles won by a field goal. The Eagles outgained the 'Skins by 190 yards in the other game, had the most possession, and still lost by a field goal.
That's why I think it may not be worth analyzing some of these divisional games. If they usually split the series, maybe you just need to favor the home team or literally flip a coin? That would've meant a wrong pick in the Jets/Dolphins game, though.
Raiders (2-1) vs Bears (0-3)
Pick: Raiders
This was almost a case of, does EITHER team have to win?!! I don't know if the Raiders are really that good, because they've beaten the Browns (on the road, though), and then a Ravens team that's currently 1-3. The Bears just traded away Jared Allen like they were trying to earn the #1 draft pick. Plus, I didn't know who was starting for the Bears (yes to Cutler, no to Alshon Jeffery).
Texans (1-2) vs Falcons (3-0)
Pick: Falcons
The Falcons haven't really needed good scoring defense to win all of their games (a minimum of 20 points allowed?). It doesn't seem to hurt them, though, because they've limited turnovers, and their passing offense is probably better than most teams not named the Patriots.
Believe it or not, the Texans are allowing almost the same number of points defensively, and limiting teams to FEWER yards than in 2014, but takeaways have been rare, and I think they're still figuring out their offense.
Chiefs (1-2) vs Bengals (3-0)
Pick: Bengals
The Chiefs are my AFC team, so it's not fun picking against them. I wondered if they're really that vulnerable to the pass, of if those numbers just reflect playing against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. They've also been giving the ball away twice per game, which matched the number of takeaways recorded by the Bengals.
Browns (1-2) vs Chargers (1-2)
Pick: Chargers
Those records suggest these are evenly matched teams. I really doubted that "on paper," since the Chargers gain 402 yards per game, and the Browns allow 396. If you reverse those comparisons, the Browns record 317 yards each game, and the Chargers limit other teams to 325 yards. Turnovers are about the same. The Chargers were a winning team at home last year.
I almost made this game my eliminator pick, and then the real score was WAY TOO CLOSE for comfort!
Packers (3-0) vs 49ers (1-2)
Pick: Packers
This felt like a tempting game to predict an upset after the Packers came off a short week, traveling to the West Coast. The really low score suggests that maybe they were out of sync, but the 49ers look totally confused right now.
Rams (1-2) vs Cardinals (3-0)
Pick: Cardinals
The Cardinals haven't played a strong team yet (1-3 or 0-4 look like the possible records for each opponent right now), but I still viewed them as possibly the best team in the NFC coming into this week.
Last season, the series finished 2-0 Cardinals, 43-20 in the score, and +4 in turnovers. The Cardinals also had the most possession in each game.
Meanwhile, the Rams came in averaging fewer than 17 points per game, from only 274 total yards.
That's why they have to play the games!
Vikings (2-1) vs Broncos (3-0)
Pick: Broncos
Who would expect the Broncos to average less than 300 total yards after three weeks? They seem to be the opposite of the Falcons. Defense has won them some games, because they can limit other teams to only 259 yards. Add that to a bunch of sacks and turnovers, and the Broncos' regular season home record, and that probably explains this pick.
Cowboys (2-1) vs Saints (0-3)
Pick: Cowboys
They did play a version of this game in Arlington last season, but it felt like an apples to oranges comparison to try and figure out anything from that game. The Cowboys are so thin due to injuries, and Drew Brees has a sore shoulder. I don't even know how I favored the Cowboys, other than because they were the more popular pick on ESPN.
Lions (0-3) vs Seahawks (1-2)
Pick: Seahawks
Now that I know how the Cowboys/Saints game ended, it looks like the Lions are the last hope for an 0-4 team. They also had the only 0-16 record in history, right?
Rationally, I see how the Seahawks are really tough to beat at home, and the Lions mostly gain yards by passing (at least through three games). You don't really want to try that against the Seahawks, although they've given up 7.9 yards per attempt and have yet to intercept a pass.
I almost forgot my other picks:
Eliminator - Cardinals. It was the last home game I saw on their schedule where I viewed them as a big favorite. I went against my general rule of trying NOT to pick a team that's playing a division opponent. By week 16 or 17, I think it's impossible to avoid picking a divisional game.
Record Breaker - Latavius Murray, Raiders. Seriously! You'd think I was trying to play a game where you find the 50 yard running back every week. Can I at least finish above 1,000 yards, assuming I stick with the game all season?
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WWE 2K18 ROSTER & MATCH TYPES | ||||
If you see multiple of the same name, it just means different versions that can be in the ring together. Names highlighted in blue are Cruiserweights | ||||
1 Up Man Adam Cole Aerostar Aiden English AJ Styles Akam Akira Tozawa Albert Aleister Black Alexander Wolfe Andrade "Cien" Almas Andre The Giant Angelo Dawkins Animal Apollo Crews Ariya Daivari Arnold T101 Austin Aries B Brian Blair Bam Bam Bigelow Baron Corbin Barron Blade Batista '10 Beautiful Bobby Eaton Big Boss Man '91 Big Boss Man '99 Big Cass Big E Big Show Big Show '00 Bo Dallas Bobby Fish Bobby Roode Booker T Braun Strowman Bray Wyatt Bret Hart '97 Bret Hart '98 Brian Kendrick British Bulldog Brock Lesnar Brutus Beefcake Bryan Danielson Buddy Roberts Butch Cactus Jack '92 Cactus Jack '98 Captain Jobber Cedric Alexander Cesaro Chad Gable Chris Jericho |
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Neville Nick Miller No Way Jose Noam Dar Noob Saibot Oney Locan Optimus Prime Otis Dozovic Papa Shango Pentagon Jr Pete Dunne Primo Colon Prince Puma R-Truth Randy Orton Randy Savage Raphael Razor Ramon Reptile Retro Rick Rey Fenix Rey Mysterio Rezar Rhyno Ric Flair '88 Ric Flair '91 Rich Swann Rick Martel Rick Rude Ricky Morton Ricky Steamboat '91 Ricky Steamboat '94 Rikishi Rob Van Dam '06 Robert Gibson The Rock The Rock '01 Roddy Piper Roderick Strong Roman Reigns Rusev Sami Zayn Samoa Joe Sawyer Fulton Scorpion Scott Dawson Scott Hall Seth Rollins Shane McMahon Shane Thorne Shao Khan Shawn Michaels '97 |
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VALETS & MANAGERS Anyone above can be a "manager" plus... | ||||
Bobby Heenan Lana |
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MATCH TYPES | ||||
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MATCH MODIFIERS | ||||
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SUPER SMASH BROS. ROSTER & SETTINGS | |||
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BATTLE TYPES TIME BATTLE: All characters battle for a set amount of time scoring one point per KO and LOSING one point each time they are KO'ed. STOCK BATTLE: All characters have a set number of lives and when they run out, they're done. When combined with a time limit whomever has more lives left when time runs out wins. COIN BATTLE: For 2-4 characters ONLY! Coins are knocked out of characters as they battle. After a fixed time limit whomever has the most coins wins. SETTINGS TIME LIMIT: Can be from 1 to 15 minutes. |