The US Meterological community is making projections based on these NOAA FORECASTS, and both NOAA, Weather Underground and most USA Forecasters are basing all forecasts solely on the Models in the second image below:
But they are paying much attention to, and have been mostly altogether dismissing other models entirely, models not shown on these charts. For days there have been anywhere from 2 to 5 Models projecting a path through the Yucatan Channel...these have been available the entire time, but mostly likely are not what you have seen if you have been monitoring News Forecasts on Mainstream USA Media...
In the models below, pay most attention to the dark green Model LABELED "BAMM":
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