Goals For vs Points won - Top 10 is impossible IMO
Posted by In_The_City


on June 13, 2025, 7:23 am
There seems there’s an expectation that the Summer will bring in a whole new revamped team that will be filled with of goals and creativity and rocket us into the top half of the league. I think it’s nigh on impossible to make such a big leap. It’s not the league position of 13th we should concentrate on, it’s the number of goals we score. We were the 4th lowest scorers last season with only the 3 relegated teams scoring less than us. In 23/24 we were the 2nd lowest scorers and also 2nd lowest in 22/23. Look at the league table attached here and the correlation of goals scored vs points won. In most cases it’s 1 for 1 i.e. 1 goal scored is 1 point earned. Over the last 3 seasons, you need to score approximately 60 goals to secure a Top 10 finish. We’ve averaged 38 goals over the last 3 seasons. So if you believe we can “challenge for Top 10” what in effect you’re saying is we can go from a team that’s more or less averages 1 goal a game to one that average 1.5 goals a game and approx add 20 goals on top of what we usually score. Think about that for a minute. We’re potentially expecting a whole raft of new players to come in and gel together quickly in a new stadium and outperform all previous seasons since 16/17 when we scored 62 goals and Lukaku got 25 of them. I say it’s nigh on impossible to make such a big leap in a year of transition. I’d gladly take 13th again whilst hoping to improve our goal output to be more in line with points earned. We’ve got a huge amount of points for our goals scored these last 2 seasons. What about you? Are you really expecting an avalanche of goals and a Top 10 finish? 
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Responses
- All about balance - IanB June 13, 2025, 10:11 pm
- It's a game of opinions isn't it? None of us know.... - Mark Lager June 13, 2025, 7:23 pm
- Spot on IMHO, provided we let Dyche manage half our games again next season (nt) - 0--l--< June 13, 2025, 2:13 pm
- We got more goals from right back than right wing last season - Col June 13, 2025, 1:23 pm
- How many goals scored when we came 4th? nt - Jonathan Gard June 13, 2025, 11:08 am
- Goal difference is the best predictor of points over a season … - Mill June 13, 2025, 10:25 am
- Exactly - MikeJ June 13, 2025, 11:06 am
- I don't mind a touch of realism - for me, my expectations are fairly middling... - PabloMc2 June 13, 2025, 9:40 am
- Goals For vs Points won - Top 10 is impossible IMO - dmc June 13, 2025, 9:15 am
- We actually scored at about that rate after Moyes took over. - Makis June 13, 2025, 8:15 am
- I get what you’re saying but it’s too basic to use goal scored alone - Ste Daley* June 13, 2025, 8:09 am
- Re: Goals For vs Points won - Top 10 is impossible IMO - Manfred June 13, 2025, 7:54 am
- Thanks Bill, we had good times..n/t - DT June 13, 2025, 7:28 am
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