Do you still expect the used tesla model 3 and Y market to move downward over the next 4-6 months as a significant number of leases end?

Yes — but I’d temper my earlier expectation of how large the drop will be.

The lease-return thesis is playing out: EVs were about 10% of off-lease supply in H1 2026, ~16% in H2, and are projected to approach 19% by summer 2027. Total off-lease volume is also rising from roughly 190,000/month in H1 to 220,000/month in H2. Model 3 and Model Y are specifically expected to be among the highest-volume off-lease EVs.

But demand has been considerably stronger than I would have expected. Used EV retail sales just hit a record in Q3, and prices are actually about 8% higher YoY. Model Y in particular has been selling quickly.

Right now, October data show average dealer asking prices around $26,545 for Model 3 and $33,992 for Model Y, and both actually increased in the last month.
My updated 4–6 month outlook

From October 2026 through roughly February–April 2027, I still think the risk/reward favors waiting if you don't need the car immediately.
Vehicle Current avg. asking My spring 2027 expectation
Model 3 ~$26,500 $23,500–$25,500
Model Y ~$34,000 $30,000–$32,500
2024 Model Y LR AWD ~$30–35K depending mileage ~$28–32K
2024 Model 3 LR AWD ~$27–31K ~$24–28K

Those are my estimates, not published forecasts. I think something like another 5–10% decline is quite plausible; I no longer think a broad 15–20% collapse is the base case because buyers are absorbing the added supply surprisingly well.

There's also an important factor for your particular search: you were looking for a used Model Y with HW4, which effectively pushes you toward 2023½/2024+ vehicles. Those are exactly the cars that should become increasingly common as 2024 leases mature during 2027. More than half of used EV listings are already 2023–2024 vehicles.

So if I were trying to buy a 2024 Model Y Long Range AWD, HW4, ~25–40K miles, I would probably wait until January–March 2027, unless you find an unusually attractive deal now. That's where I think the combination of lease returns, winter seasonality, and increased dealer competition gives you a better shot at a sub-$30K Model Y LR AWD.

One caveat: used EV prices rose substantially earlier this year because demand strengthened, so gasoline prices, Tesla's new-car pricing/incentives, and interest rates could easily overpower the lease-return effect. Cox says the growing off-lease supply has so far been absorbed without overwhelming the market.

Bottom line: I still favor waiting 4–6 months, but today I'd expect roughly $2,000–$4,000 of additional savings on the type of Model Y you're considering, rather than assuming a dramatic price crash.