To my surprise, I now read that the National Security Cutters (at least) are built to US Navy survivability Level 1 requirements. That is the same level as the LCS. (I thought I had read earluer somewhere that USCG ships were built to a mercantile standard.) Wikipedia also claims:

"The NSC is built to about 90% military standards.[21]"

And:

"The NSC is designed to U.S. Navy damage stability criteria and to level-1 survivability standards.[25]"

It then looks like the Navy intends to leave that alone. One pretty big positive step. A lot of the Constellation's problems came from "reinforcing" the hull to gain the desired surviability level, which added weight, which necessitated altering hull dimensions and reduced speed, etc.

Next, USNI's article:

https://news.usni.org/2025/12/19/secnav-new-frigate-will-be-based-on-national-security-cutter-first-ffx-to-be-built-at-ingalls

Claims no major weapons changes at the outset. A platform will be built over the boat deck to add MK 70 launchers (or NSMs) or other desired loads. That doesn't look "too drastic." MK 70s basically ARE VLS cells, so they will be "bolt on," not a major hull revision.

As Francine noted, ASW ability is considered for later. That ASW ability will undoubtedly be a variable depth sonar. They tried to mount one on an LCS, which hull was not meant for it. That is actually one of the driving reasons for the switch to the previous frigate. Lots of literature noted they were to be "focused on the ASW mission" while LCS could handle surface warfare and mine clearing missions (two of its three desired functions.) It looks from what is written that the initial production frigates will not be built with a VDS, but--layman that I am--it looks promising to me that the hull could accomodate a VDS, and working that into the design would happen while initial batches are being produced without it.

I would note that this is labeled FF(X) not FFG(X). A subtle but significant thing. I would also note that 4th fleet needs are one of the main concerns. They don't need the overkill of a hi-end AA ship. This will not be that.

This is at least 3,000 tons smaller than the Constellations, and much more austere. It is meant to field and control drones, patrol, and be an "available hull" for other missions which might come up, through the container platform it will carry. In this regard the current National Security Cutter already does much of this as currently configured. Add a multipurpose platform, and consider how to install a VDS while you knock out the first batch. We need to accept "good enough," and not add bells and whistles like hi-end AA radar suites and missiles, and "battle group level" survivability standards. SMALL Surface Combatant. To free the Large ones up to do what they were built to do.

Doesn't look hopeless to me. I do not like trying to predict the future. There are plenty of ways to louse this up. But, it looks to me like it has a reasonable chance. Only time will tell.