I immediately experienced the struggle in both the spirit and the flesh magnify sharply.
Expect both the current and evolving computer models for TS Karl, as well as the Forecasts of the Weather experts to shift soon...both illustrating for a time, a strong possibility of a Florida Landfall by what will become Hurricane Karl.
This will only be briefly so with the public forecasts, as we can expect the computer models to start fluctuating wildly, while some of them, show a consistent southward shifting trend in their projections as the REAL PATH OF THIS STORM, slowly becomes evident, and then likewise expect similar shifts with the predictions of the Weather Experts.
This storm, is taking a very similar path as Invest 99L on its way to the Gulf of Mexico, and as Invest 92L did likewise.
The illustration below has two images, at the left of your screen, the original computer models from 9-14-16 when INVEST 95L was upgraded to TD 12 at 11 am...note there was ONE PATH, which illustrated a path STRAIGHT TO THE CARIBBEAN...
at the right, is the actual Storm Path history from the point it became a Tropical Depression on 9-14-16, until this morning 9-19-16
In the days that followed, the computer models shifted greatly. Early on, on 9-14, and even early on 9-15, Weather experts were reporting possibility of TD 12 going into the Caribbean. As TD 12 became TS KARL on 9-15 at 10pm, and as Computer models changed the forecasts by the same experts changed...calling for this to most likely curve and either shift out into the Atlantic or perhaps take aim for the mid East coast or more northward. In recent days, these same Computer models have started slowly shifting southward, still showing a predicted ARCH and curve north, but with Weather Experts starting to consider and name possible landfalls on the northeastern Florida Coast.
Expect these forecasts by the Experts to shift in tone soon, citing a bit more confidently a storm path to Florida...and soon after, as the storm to their dismay does not follow the projected ARCHING CURVE all the computer models for days have predicted...and at that time as the same models evolve and at that time when it gets here, illustrate more southern paths, possibly across the south eastern tip of Florida, and through the Straights of Florida and into the Gulf, start expecting forecasts at that time to follow suit, much like we witnessed with Hurricane Hermine when it was still Invest 99L approaching The Dominican Republic.
Note in each of the images below, the evolving Computer model projections are at the left of your screen in each image (With the black line representing the actual path the storm has taken to this point and the other lines the projections that were made in the earlier timeframes)...and at the right of your screen in each image, are the two images in the first illustration above in this post...
Now...why are the computer models at this time predicting this "ARCH" and why are the forecasters doing likewise? Well, the computer models figure a lot of details into the projections made, INCLUDING the HISTORY OF PAST STORMS.
And low pressure systems favor one another, they like to join each other. Now right now, there is a low pressure system a few hundred miles south east of the Carolinas in the Atlantic, what was formerly INVEST 93L, and went on to surprise all the weather Experts, as at one point their computer models, based a ZERO % chance of development for Invest 93L, and just hours later, and in rare fashion...WHILE OVER LAND...invest 93L formed into TROPICAL STORM JULIA, which to the Weather Experts has been honestly, anything but what they expected or predicted...even now, in the last couple days it yesterday (9/18) regained strength to become a cyclone again, POST-Tropical Storm Julia briefly... before being downgraded again (as it was Sept 13) to 0% chance of development, and no longer being monitored...and much like Invest 99L, has lingered much longer in its lifespan than most of these storm systems do... you may recall...last week:
You may recall that event formed on "SEPTEMBER 13th"...as did our original focus on Invest 95L...
So...while we are on the topic of "SEPTEMBER 13th" ...note that there was one particular EARLY COMPUTER MODEL for TS JULIA which was discussed on this board, one which showed the potential for TS JULIA to curve out into the Atlantic, then shift and loop around to come back across The Florida Straights and into the Gulf of Mexico...
Note the BAMD Computer model above, and this is important now, not just because of our attention to Invest 93L given prior and the focus on "SEPTEMBER 13th" noted in the Vision of August 17th... but because of the following two facts...
FIRST...With regard to TROPICAL STORM JULIA which formed just hours after the computer models above were released on "SEPTEMBER 13th"...
So, as you can see, INVEST 93L, later Tropical Storm Julia, now just remnants of the same, is taking the Path We focused in on this board on Sept 13th...at least to this point it is...and if it continues, even partially, I don't know if this is the low pressure system the Weather Experts are speaking of, that is expected to cause TS KARL to turn northward...but if it is, well, and if it continues...it is not going north, but looping back around towards the Florida Straights...
Something to take note of at this time, but regardless, getting back to The storm track model history of TS Karl, with comparison to the various computer models noted above, take note of the following superimposed image, and see for yourself, KARL, thus far has been true, not 80%, not 70%, but thus far 100% to the ORIGINAL NGFDL computer model released 9/14/16 when it was upgraded from INVEST 95L to TD 12...
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