Ok, about 24 hours ago...11:08 pm CST
invest 93L which had been at a 10% chance of development for days, still was, as it was off the southeast Florida coast... (in the next image, Tropical Disturbance 1 off the coast of Florida is INVEST 93L, and the area off the coast of Africa, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 formed yesterday 9-12-16 as INVEST 95L)
now just 3 days ago...we seen Invest 93L (then noted as TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2) off the coast of the Domincan Republic, as Invest 92L (Tropical Disturbance 3 in the next image below) had re-developed in the Florida Peninsula and was impacting at the time of the post on Sept 9 at 11:18 pm, the eastern Coast of the Yucatan at Cancuun, and the Western half of Cuba...
in that post on Sept 10th, ongoing matters of 'RAPID INTENSIFICATION' were noted again, also a past reference once again coming up of "Hurricane Humberto" and the "SURPRISE" manner by which it developed, and anticpations of similar occurring in this timeframe...
So then this morning, 9/13/16...
Invest 92L having been downgraded from any area of interest yesterday, and INVEST 93L, this morning being downgraded from 10% chance of development in 48 hours and 10% chance of development within 5 days, which it had maintained for the last several days or more...was downgraded this morning to a "ZERO" that is 0% chance of development in 48 hours, and a 0% chance of development within 5 days, and this as the center of low pressure, while much of the storm was over water, the center was over and is over land.
NOw that was just 12 hours ago! Do note that yesterday afternoon, Sept 12, 2016, Invest 95L formed off the coast of West Africa, I note this because storm track models since yesterday have consistently indicated this will become a hurricane, and 2 or more models have consistently pointed a path that will go into the Caribbean and possibly after the gulf of Mexico, though models have only extended to the Caribbean at this point...
This system INVEST 95L, is already trying to form counterclockwise circulation and it is only off the coast of Africa at this point, that's a strong indicator it will become a hurricane, but NOAA is giving it a 50% of becoming such over the next 5 days at this point.
So...back to today, and INVEST 93L...
Now, just 12 hours ago, it was downgraded, given a ZERO % chance of development within 48 hours and a ZERO % chance of development at all in the next 5 days...so, remember the theme of "HURRICANE HUMBERTO" and "RAPID INTENSIFICATION" coming up again and again these past couple weeks...
So 4 hours later...INVEST 93L had undergone RAPID INTENSIFICATION...and under rare conditions while the center of low pressure had moved over land!
Pay attention to the RED GFS MODEL, and the WHITE BAMD Models at 4pm this afternoon, each illustrating potention to move either over land and the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf of Mexico, or to circle out into the atlantic, and back down to the southern tip of Florida, again a path carrying back towards the gulf of Mexico.
I am not saying these are correct, only noting interest and possibility...I do believe the event of 'EAST YUCATAN' and "WESTERN CUBA" was fulfilled by INvest 92L on September 9th.
Recall I noted of the vision of August 17th, I originally thought I had seen one storm, but later realized I was seeing at least two different storms with similar paths. Invest 92L, and Invest 99L both had similar paths up to the point of the Yucatan Channel.
I still believe that vision to be in place, with emphasis now, continuing for HOUSTON...either by Invest 93L, now TROPICAL STORM Julia...or by Invest 95L, which today, "SEPTEMBER 13th" in two different timeframes, have computer models indicating a path towards the Caribbean, and an early intensity that could prove this to be a CAT 1, Cat 2 or greater storm before or by reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
BY the way, you read correctly, with regard to INVEST 93L, expectations of "RAPID INTENSIFICATION"...the system downgraded just 12 hours ago at 11:30 am CST to a ZERO % chance of development, just 4 hours later with its center of low pressure already over land, upgraded to 40% chance of development, and by 11pm this evening, in under 12 hours went from a ZERO % chance of Development to a NAMED TROPICAL STORM...
NOW TROPICAL STORM JULIA...
Take note that at 11pm, the last half hour, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2, (INVEST 95L) off the coast of Africa shows further efforts to form counterclockwise formation, and is upgraded to even higher percentage for development in the next two days...I honestly would not be surprised to see it named as a Tropical storm in the next 15 hours, perhaps even a Cat 1 Hurricane, in the same timeframe or soon after, 15-36 hours.
ALL THIS SAID, and with regard for any concern for "HOUSTON"...take note as well, of the CURRENT activity already in the GULF OF MEXICO...noting that while Invest 92L is not on the current surface of monitoring and thought to be over and dissipated...it already went through this once in the last 7 days, being downgraded to ZERO % chance of development, then totally taken off any level of monitoring, then later after a couple days, "RE-DEVELOPING" again while in the Florida Peninsula on September 9th...all of this current activity in the Gulf of Mexico at this time...is remnants of Invest 92L...and I am not counting that out yet either, nor for that matter, a new entity forming in the Gulf off the same activity now seen in the gulf of Mexico...whether renamed again INVEST 92L or something else...
I DO NOTE, the intensity associated "large human tolls" has lessened in the last week or so, and I believe this has to do with (at least thus far) no further Mockery being offered in reference to the matter of Rebuke noted about a week ago...though that matter has not yet run its course and is not fully resolved.
FOR THOSE PAYING ATTENTION...I urge you to continue your prayers for HOUSTON...