66% of cases in New York were infections from people who had stayed at home with very little or no outside contact
I don't believe that anyone who was ambulatory remained continuously indoors. I believe, as Cuomo revealed via the gathered datta, the number of new infections is being caused by 'personal behavior' and not the lockdown.
I question if these people when triaged would actually admit to disregarding social distancing and other precautionary measures.