: "At least during King Hussein’s reign,
: Jordan seemed to be on the road (a very long
: road mind you!) towards anything resembling
: a democracy."
:
: I disagree. At one point King Hussein
: dissolved parliament and did not recall it
: until faced with a potential uprising 22
: years later. Even in Ms. Habib's book, it
: is clear that he did not really try to move
: toward genuine constitutional monarchy until
: he was literally on his deathbed.
I wasn't aware that he tried to do this even on his deathbed. The manner of the succession and the virtually botched way it was handled suggests to me the complete opposite.
: "Now it seems, the Hashemites took a
: look at the road signs ahead, did a u-turn
: and are now racing back to where Jordan was
: in the 60s and 70s."
:
: I'm not sure this is entirely the case.
: King Abdullah - whom I am never shy to
: criticize - at least seems to understand
: that "instant democracy," as the
: US imposed on Iraq and Afghanistan, and was
: then tried in Egypt and many other places,
: does not work if the ground has not been
: laid by the building of civil society. The
: King has said numerous times that he wants a
: political culture in which elections will be
: based on political parties and not tribal
: allegiance. The problem is that I don't
: know that he knows how to do that. His
: other major problem is that his father left
: it too long and it may now be too late. He
: reminds me of the 18th century European
: "enlightened despots" like
: Frederick the Great, Josef II and Catherine
: the Great - a liberal ruler trying to impose
: western modernity on his people against
: their will.
I think King Abdullah's problem is not so much his intentions which are probably just as well meant as his father's but that he seems to lack the kind of personal rapport that King Hussein enjoyed with both sides of the political divide in Jordan ie. playing the man of the people role along with being seen as a moderniser and Western friendly ruler.
: "I also think King Hussein and his
: brother were more canny than the current
: rulers and convinced the West that they
: really did want a more liberal, democratic
: Jordan, the West just had to give it time, I
: can appreciate how anyone could be convinced
: by that, after all democracy is a process,
: its not going to happen over night."
:
: I agree. King Hussein was a master at
: playing the Arab Nationalist at home and the
: liberal democrat abroad. (And, I would
: note, he accomplished many great things by
: doing so!)
King Hussein had great personal charm and charisma and knew exactly when to be soft spoken and accommodating and when to wield the big stick.
: The current King and Queen are less adept at
: this. The Queen has certainly charmed the
: western media, but she seems to have something
: of a Marie Antoinette reputation at home.
It's my impression that the current king lacks something of his father's charm and charisma. He is very much a military-minded man who tends to think in immediate, no-nonsense solutions without always taking the time to be as diplomatic and tactful about it as his father was. With King Abdullah, what you see is what you get and his bluntness doesn't always play too well with tribal leaders and Palestinian intellectuals who like to be flattered and seduced in the way that King Hussein would probably have engaged them. It's a little ironic that he and his wife take so much flak from critics because their married and home life seems to be exemplary compared to that of his predecessors. It is notable that the present king of Jordan is the only one so far to have remained steadfastly loyal to one wife which cannot be said for most of the rest of his family including his brothers and sisters. In his domestic set-up, the current king is certainly not a typical Hashemite and that may also be one of the things that gets up certain people's noses.
: "I don’t think King Abdullah is able to
: do that anymore and let’s be blunt; the West
: really doesn’t care anymore what happens
: within Jordan, provided Jordan can stand and
: protect itself and act as a buffer zone, it
: gets a free rein."
:
: This is true. The only reason the regime has
: lasted this long is that the US and Israel
: feel a vital interest in preventing it from
: being taken over by Islamists or collapsing
: like Iraq and Syria. Canny western
: diplomats, however, must surely recognize
: that liberalization of Jordan is the only
: long-term (or perhaps even medium-term) way
: to ensure that.
I disagree. I think the West continues to take a keen interest in Jordan and its affairs and has a vested interest in ensuring that the regime in control there remains stable and pro-Western. At this juncture, the most likely replacement for the Hashemites would be a fundamentalist Islamic regime and that would be in nobody's interests.
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