Posted by Roustabout on October 29, 2020, 10:10 am

Link: https://uncoverdc.com/2020/10/28/eye-on-politics-roll-tide-vote-by-mail-analysis/

Posted by Tactical on October 29, 2020, 1:01 pm, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

Trump must believe he has a chance and Biden must believe he can lose it. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on October 29, 2020, 2:56 pm, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

AZ, NC, MI and WI to Biden. PA doesn't matter after that. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Potomac on October 29, 2020, 3:30 pm, in reply to "Trump will win Florida. "

Arrested for changing DeSantis’s address. Idiot. Previous Message AZ, NC, MI and WI to Biden. PA doesn't matter after that. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on October 29, 2020, 5:59 pm, in reply to "Trump will win Florida. "

Previous Message AZ, NC, MI and WI to Biden. PA doesn't matter after that. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by djtexillini on October 29, 2020, 6:02 pm, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

michigan and pennsylvania probably doesn’t. trump easily wins a theoretical no-fraud election Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on October 29, 2020, 6:41 pm, in reply to "it all comes down to whether the swing states have the fraud under control"

Previous Message michigan and pennsylvania probably doesn’t. trump easily wins a theoretical no-fraud election Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Lex on October 29, 2020, 9:46 pm, in reply to "it all comes down to whether the swing states have the fraud under control"

Posted by haighter on October 29, 2020, 11:45 pm, in reply to "There's no doubt at all he wins with a normal election process."

Previous Message Lots of people regretting their early Biden votes.

Posted by Fanin on October 30, 2020, 9:12 am, in reply to "How is this not a normal election process? *"

Previous Message Previous Message Lots of people regretting their early Biden votes. you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Lex on October 30, 2020, 9:17 am, in reply to "How is this not a normal election process? *"

Previous Message Previous Message Lots of people regretting their early Biden votes.

Posted by Lex on October 30, 2020, 9:18 am, in reply to "Lex doesn't like high turnout*"

Posted by Fanin on October 30, 2020, 9:37 am, in reply to "Or providing Dems more opportunities to engage in their favorite hobby."

Previous Message Election fraud. you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Lex on October 30, 2020, 9:38 am, in reply to "People having the ability to vote seems to really upset the right*"

Previous Message Previous Message Election fraud.

Posted by Fanin on October 30, 2020, 9:42 am, in reply to "Keep finding votes until Joe wins!*"

Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Election fraud. you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by haighter on October 30, 2020, 10:17 am, in reply to "Oh, good. We get to play obtuse haighter again.*"

...actively encouraging voter fraud. The other candidate is Joe Biden. Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Lots of people regretting their early Biden votes.

Posted by Lex on October 30, 2020, 1:57 pm, in reply to "One candidate told their voters to vote multiple times..."

Posted by Lex on October 30, 2020, 1:59 pm, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

Posted by Fanin on October 30, 2020, 2:26 pm, in reply to "16% first time voters means a Biden landslide!!!"

Previous Message Or not. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-voters-poll/more-first-time-voters-late-deciders-in-u-s-presidential-race-reuters-ipsos-idUSKBN1332RY you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Fanin on October 30, 2020, 3:08 pm, in reply to "He also encouraged the Russians to hack Hillary's emails."

Previous Message LOL you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by haighter on October 30, 2020, 8:28 pm, in reply to "He also encouraged the Russians to hack Hillary's emails."

Previous Message LOL

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 6:55 am, in reply to "And lo and behold they did. Hunters too. Ask Guiliani. *"

Previous Message Previous Message LOL

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 6:55 am, in reply to "Why do you admire someone who often acts like a 5 year old?*"

Previous Message Previous Message LOL

Posted by Potomac on November 2, 2020, 8:13 am, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

I found her column today to be pretty reasonable, as we prepare to go from one mess to a different one. I hope Trump loses and the GOP hold the Senate so we can have divided government, as she does. Myself, I’m voting against Trump with no hopes of a Free-market Restoration, but only for the mundane reason that he isn’t fit to hold the presidency — because of character faults I’ve been listing for five years and am too tired to list again. However, I consider Biden fit only in comparison, and I like his running mate, who lacks any instinct for bipartisan comity, still less. I didn’t approve of what the Obama administration got up to when they had both White House and Congress, and expect to disapprove even more strongly now that Democratic partisans are openly noodling about court-packing and adding states. Thus, I’d prefer that they win as little power as possible — just enough to save the Republic from Trump, and no more. So I voted for divided government as much as I could, and that’s what I’ll be rooting for, fervently, on Tuesday night. Though also hopelessly, if the polls are to be believed; as of this writing, it looks like Trump is going to be a one-term president, and take the GOP’s Senate majority with him when he goes. I can’t say I’m surprised that it’s come to this — or that the Republicans don’t deserve to lose after enabling this fame-addled mountebank. But no matter how I might rejoice to see the last of Trump, I cannot look forward to what will likely follow. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on November 2, 2020, 11:39 am, in reply to "Some polling analyses from a Pub polling guy. Kind of interesting "

most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 12:20 pm, in reply to "For the BUT2016!! guys"

Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 12:23 pm, in reply to "For the BUT2016!! guys"

Posted by Fanin on November 2, 2020, 1:12 pm, in reply to "Only a buffoon would believe that either candidate is up 11% nationally.*"

Previous Message Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Fanin on November 2, 2020, 1:12 pm, in reply to "But if you like and trust polls, and I know you do, here you go . . ."

Previous Message https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/iowa-poll-selzer/index.html you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by djtexillini on November 2, 2020, 1:29 pm, in reply to "I factor in 3% far right voter suppression*"

Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 2:12 pm, in reply to "not one legal vote will be suppressed by the right*"

Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 2:12 pm, in reply to "Nope. It's a very corrupt state, which gives the right an advantage*"

Previous Message Previous Message AZ, NC, MI and WI to Biden. PA doesn't matter after that. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on November 2, 2020, 4:14 pm, in reply to "not one legal vote will be suppressed by the right*"

Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.

Posted by Lex on November 2, 2020, 4:27 pm, in reply to "Apparently slowing down the mail is legal*"

Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message Previous Message most accurate 2016 poll shows Biden up 11. https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-120049450.html Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton"

Posted by Fanin on November 3, 2020, 7:16 am, in reply to "Megan McArdle on why she held her nose and voted for Biden but is worried"

This country needs lots of reform. Previous Message I found her column today to be pretty reasonable, as we prepare to go from one mess to a different one. I hope Trump loses and the GOP hold the Senate so we can have divided government, as she does. Myself, I’m voting against Trump with no hopes of a Free-market Restoration, but only for the mundane reason that he isn’t fit to hold the presidency — because of character faults I’ve been listing for five years and am too tired to list again. However, I consider Biden fit only in comparison, and I like his running mate, who lacks any instinct for bipartisan comity, still less. I didn’t approve of what the Obama administration got up to when they had both White House and Congress, and expect to disapprove even more strongly now that Democratic partisans are openly noodling about court-packing and adding states. Thus, I’d prefer that they win as little power as possible — just enough to save the Republic from Trump, and no more. So I voted for divided government as much as I could, and that’s what I’ll be rooting for, fervently, on Tuesday night. Though also hopelessly, if the polls are to be believed; as of this writing, it looks like Trump is going to be a one-term president, and take the GOP’s Senate majority with him when he goes. I can’t say I’m surprised that it’s come to this — or that the Republicans don’t deserve to lose after enabling this fame-addled mountebank. But no matter how I might rejoice to see the last of Trump, I cannot look forward to what will likely follow. Previous Message "Democrats had built a 615,000 lead before the Red Charge, and now lead in total votes in Florida only by 242,102. While the pace of Republican voting is breathtaking—at one point they were adding 6,000 votes per hour—they are now on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State." "While we are talking African-American support, take a look at Virginia, which is not on anyone’s radar. Currently, the black turnout is at 13% there. (Keep in mind that up to 15% of that number will be Trump voters). For Democrats to feel safe, it needs to be closer to 18-19%. This tracks well with the New York Times story about black voting in Philadelphia, where Trump was running nine points ahead of his 2016 pace and Joe Biden was 10 points behind Hillary Clinton" you have to accept reality. it was stolen but there is no way to prove it.