10 year hits a 5 month high.*

Posted by Ari Gold on April 25, 2024, 9:10:37, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Mortgage rates jumped from 7 to 7.5 range last week*

Posted by JeffFrank on April 16, 2024, 15:25:23, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Ish Cookoff Champion 2016

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." Illiniphil is a mindless robot

higher for longer. could we be headed for a double top on the 10 year?*

Posted by Ari Gold on April 16, 2024, 14:28:37, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

I keep worrying that we will try to inflate our way out of the debt crisis

Posted by Potomac on April 10, 2024, 14:51:20, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

I actually operate oil wells as like a hobby. So it has been working as an inflation hedge

Posted by stubborn on April 10, 2024, 9:07:38, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
naw I don't care

kind of Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." What?

yikes. 10 year closing in on 4.5.*

Posted by Ari Gold on April 10, 2024, 7:37:27, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

jamie dimon still worried about sticky inflation and could see rates as high as 8%.*

Posted by Ari Gold on April 8, 2024, 8:28:54, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Oof, this is why you keep dry powder. Guh*

Posted by fratstud on April 5, 2024, 16:34:31, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Oil!*

Posted by stubborn on April 5, 2024, 7:53:08, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
naw I don't care

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." What?

any update?*

Posted by Ari Gold on April 2, 2024, 9:10:42, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

The market can handle this debt for a bit longer, but…,

Posted by Potomac on March 14, 2024, 16:47:22, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

A Wharton professor was on Fast Money saying the US can handle 120% debt to GDP, but not 200%, which is where we are headed. The market will eventually break, he said. You can’t grow out of that and debt holders eventually resist. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

any update?*

Posted by Ari Gold on March 14, 2024, 12:35:33, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Drilling again. I still have powder and she's getting to the point where

Posted by fratstud on February 13, 2024, 7:56:53, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

I may start buying again. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

A few banks are getting shaky again and all of the sudden this trade is

Posted by fratstud on February 1, 2024, 9:21:02, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

looking really good again. NYCB gapped down yesterday as did Aozora after reporting a 58% loss on their commercial loan portfolio. Strongest economy ever. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

any update?*

Posted by Ari Gold on January 24, 2024, 14:48:17, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

to the moon alice*

Posted by Superman on December 27, 2023, 15:10:20, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." F ATL

TTMLI5...Now what?

Posted by EffinIllini on December 20, 2023, 12:00:09, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Have a little bit of money to do something with, or be content letting it sit as cash and make 4.35%? NASDAQ has been rolling in the past 8 weeks and looking a bit longer, killing it YTD. However, still down over where it was 2 years ago. Considering putting some in VUG (Vanguard Growth Index Fund) if stocks may continue to go. Or are we due for doom for gloom? VGLT is almost back to even from where I first purchased some shares. Probably should have bought more while it was down. Still time to buy now? Will have CDs at 5% maturing in a month. Have other money in CDs until the end of August getting 5.3%, so not certain I want tie this back up right away. (Best deal appears to 14 months at 5.4%) Hindsight is 20/20, but my post in this thread from just over 2 months ago: https://members.boardhost.com/onedeuce/msg/1697047081.html Yeah. Should have bought more of her company stock. Up 45% since that drop. Unfortunately her ESPP is based on the December 31 price. Could have waited for that surge to come after the New Year. Or ISRG, that plunged due to a drop in bariatric surgeries thought due to Ozempic. Now up 27% in under 2 months. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Just dropped another 10 gs on FHLB paper. Got 5.01%*

Posted by fratstud on December 19, 2023, 8:47:01, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Good God almighty. I cannot believe I had the balls to do these trades and can't

Posted by fratstud on December 14, 2023, 15:46:00, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

believe that it broke my way this quickly. What an absolutely monstrous rally. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Oh baby, what a market. What a market. The original fund trade that I went into

Posted by fratstud on December 5, 2023, 17:48:25, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

on September 1, 2023 is now officially BACK IN THE GREEN! Which means that every single bond I bought in September and October is back up. Pricing data on some is sparse so I don't ever really know what my account is worth absent getting a bid, but I bought over a half a million face in 20-30 year paper and I think on average it must be up 5-6% already. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

this is a good day. right?*

Posted by Superman on December 1, 2023, 14:23:43, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." F ATL

The blended 10+ year Treasury market will likely finish November with

Posted by fratstud on November 30, 2023, 9:55:50, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

an 8.25% gain. The deluge of capital into it has been quite a sight. The big boys are getting scurred. Still time to get on the train, fellas. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

i’ll take the paper gain but fools gold cucks cucking over 3+% inflation on top of 10 on top of 8

Posted by Superman on November 14, 2023, 17:15:28, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

are the fools. their savings accounts will be worthless at this pace. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." F ATL

Good God almighty. 4.44 on the 10 year. Probably the biggest up day I've ever had*

Posted by fratstud on November 14, 2023, 14:52:04, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Put in another 10 just now. I'm going on pause until December, then I have

Posted by fratstud on November 10, 2023, 10:10:28, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

some February and April maturities and I will reconsider then. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Waiting for Biden to take credit for higher standard deduction and tax brackets next year

Posted by Potomac on November 9, 2023, 15:54:24, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Hey, inflation has two positives: the standard deduction and the tax brackets will move by 5.4%, the IRS announced. At least that softens the blow. The SALT limit of $10K isn't indexed. Higher-tax states take a bit more of a hit. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

The Housng Market...(from Throw's buddy & author of stubborn's tweet below)

Posted by EffinIllini on November 9, 2023, 10:38:58, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Just FOMOed another 50 into it. This thing is running fast*

Posted by fratstud on November 9, 2023, 8:33:46, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

2024 is going to be weird (link)

Posted by stubborn on November 8, 2023, 20:59:18, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
naw I don't care

https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap/status/1722399304684282248?t=WE4R12Npm6r8ZTvi0gxXtw&s=19 Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." What?

The market has moved up so much in the past week that now I'm getting FOMO and

Posted by fratstud on November 8, 2023, 13:25:58, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

dropped another 10k in today. I don't have the balls to pull the YOLO trade I wanted to do. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

I'm over $650k face value right now. I still have stuff that I bought in 2007 that

Posted by fratstud on November 7, 2023, 15:27:51, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

has another decade plus to get to maturity. Maybe I should stop buying soon. This thing is getting materially bigger than my oil trade was and I'm starting to worry about it now that I see all the bonds in my account. I fear that my hands may turn into paper when I need them to be diamonds. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Put in $3k yesterday, $5k today. Man, this thing really ran the last few days of

Posted by fratstud on November 7, 2023, 15:23:20, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

last week. I'm considering a 2051 issue that is 46 cents on the dollar. Buy $100k face of that for $46k. Coupon on it is trash, though. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Can we talk housing real quick?

Posted by bigbop85 on October 31, 2023, 9:03:45, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Bought another 5k face of 2051s just now. Come on Fed, come on, break the economy*

Posted by fratstud on October 31, 2023, 7:37:18, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Just dropped another 10 grand in*

Posted by fratstud on October 30, 2023, 7:38:46, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Go Zags!

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." "Iowa women were better than Illini men" - Potomac

Lots of Jones out there to keep up with (wealth numbers)

Posted by Potomac on October 27, 2023, 8:30:04, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

From Wall St Journal based on Federal Reserve data: About 16 million American families—just over 12%—have wealth exceeding $1 million, up from 9.8 million families in 2019. Nearly eight million families are multimillionaires, i.e., their wealth exceeds $2 million, up from 4.7 million. ... It is true that there are gaping disparities of wealth in the U.S. today. Nonetheless, many people whose wealth would define them as poor expect one day to be rich—and many, in fact, will be. For example, only 1% of families under 35 are millionaires, but that rises with age. By ages 55-64, 21% of families are millionaires. This trend is particularly pronounced among college graduates, of whom 45% were millionaires between ages 55-64. That includes 26% of families who become multimillionaires and 11% with a net worth over $5 million. The average college graduate’s net worth is over $2 million now, though as usual this is skewed by those at the very top. Make no mistake, there is still poverty and economic struggle in the U.S. Many families have little or no wealth, and limited prospect of accumulating any. And yet the idea that only the 1% are getting richer is at odds with the numbers. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Pulled the trigger on those 10 month 5.3% CDs last night.

Posted by EffinIllini on October 26, 2023, 12:00:41, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"

Guaranteed better rates in the next few days. Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."

Mortgage rates above 8%. The company I have been at is shutting down*

Posted by JeffFrank on October 23, 2023, 15:12:11, in reply to "Treasury market getting absolutely walloped"
Ish Cookoff Champion 2016

Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance." Illiniphil is a mindless robot