any update?*
Previous Message Of course I dropped $40k into it a few weeks ago, so naturally it is drilling now. I have another quarter mil I want to deploy in long term paper because I'm trying to build a beautiful retirement bond ladder, but I'm not gonna lie, seeing these sorts of paper losses in a couple weeks makes my butthole pucker up a little bit. I thought I had conviction in this trade, but it is nothing like my reckless oil trade where I was absolutely certain it would break my way. Again, I just see no possible way that the West doesn't deploy every available tool to push interest rates way down, which will push these long bonds up dramatically. At current interest rates we are paying over 11% of the federal budget in interest expense. Of course the Treasury department did away with most of the inventory of paper over 10 years (likely because they were terrified of this very scenario) so between deficit spending and maturities that get rolled we could easily walk into a situation where the interest payments alone are nearing 15% of the budget inside of a few years. I bought more today. I have to have diamond hands. The trade will come to me. This will be a major safe haven when the rate hikes shred the stock market, which they always do. My God, I can't believe that 13 years of ZIRP has brought me to the point where I'm looking at 4.89 on 20 year paper and thinking it's a good deal. I could always diamond hand cash and get over 5%, but if you miss that first rate cut there's no telling when even semi-decent rates will return. There's a whole generation of Millennial kids who have absolutely no idea what is coming. "Yeah, my allocation is 100% domestic stock. I have a high risk tolerance."
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Treasury market getting absolutely walloped - fratstud September 25, 2023, 15:19:10
- 10 year hits a 5 month high.* - Ari Gold April 25, 2024, 9:10:37
- Mortgage rates jumped from 7 to 7.5 range last week* - JeffFrank April 16, 2024, 15:25:23
- higher for longer. could we be headed for a double top on the 10 year?* - Ari Gold April 16, 2024, 14:28:37
- I keep worrying that we will try to inflate our way out of the debt crisis - Potomac April 10, 2024, 14:51:20
- I actually operate oil wells as like a hobby. So it has been working as an inflation hedge - stubborn April 10, 2024, 9:07:38
- yikes. 10 year closing in on 4.5.* - Ari Gold April 10, 2024, 7:37:27
- jamie dimon still worried about sticky inflation and could see rates as high as 8%.* - Ari Gold April 8, 2024, 8:28:54
- Oof, this is why you keep dry powder. Guh* - fratstud April 5, 2024, 16:34:31
- Oil!* - stubborn April 5, 2024, 7:53:08
- any update?* - Ari Gold April 2, 2024, 9:10:42
- The market can handle this debt for a bit longer, but…, - Potomac March 14, 2024, 16:47:22
- any update?* - Ari Gold March 14, 2024, 12:35:33
- guh* - fratstud March 14, 2024, 13:02:48
- Drilling again. I still have powder and she's getting to the point where - fratstud February 13, 2024, 7:56:53
- A few banks are getting shaky again and all of the sudden this trade is - fratstud February 1, 2024, 9:21:02
- any update?* - Ari Gold January 24, 2024, 14:48:17
- to the moon alice* - Superman December 27, 2023, 15:10:20
- TTMLI5...Now what? - EffinIllini December 20, 2023, 12:00:09
- Just dropped another 10 gs on FHLB paper. Got 5.01%* - fratstud December 19, 2023, 8:47:01
- Good God almighty. I cannot believe I had the balls to do these trades and can't - fratstud December 14, 2023, 15:46:00
- Oh baby, what a market. What a market. The original fund trade that I went into - fratstud December 5, 2023, 17:48:25
- this is a good day. right?* - Superman December 1, 2023, 14:23:43
- The blended 10+ year Treasury market will likely finish November with - fratstud November 30, 2023, 9:55:50
- i’ll take the paper gain but fools gold cucks cucking over 3+% inflation on top of 10 on top of 8 - Superman November 14, 2023, 17:15:28
- Good God almighty. 4.44 on the 10 year. Probably the biggest up day I've ever had* - fratstud November 14, 2023, 14:52:04
- Put in another 10 just now. I'm going on pause until December, then I have - fratstud November 10, 2023, 10:10:28
- Waiting for Biden to take credit for higher standard deduction and tax brackets next year - Potomac November 9, 2023, 15:54:24
- The Housng Market...(from Throw's buddy & author of stubborn's tweet below) - EffinIllini November 9, 2023, 10:38:58
- Just FOMOed another 50 into it. This thing is running fast* - fratstud November 9, 2023, 8:33:46
- 2024 is going to be weird (link) - stubborn November 8, 2023, 20:59:18
- The market has moved up so much in the past week that now I'm getting FOMO and - fratstud November 8, 2023, 13:25:58
- I'm over $650k face value right now. I still have stuff that I bought in 2007 that - fratstud November 7, 2023, 15:27:51
- Put in $3k yesterday, $5k today. Man, this thing really ran the last few days of - fratstud November 7, 2023, 15:23:20
- Can we talk housing real quick? - bigbop85 October 31, 2023, 9:03:45
- Bought another 5k face of 2051s just now. Come on Fed, come on, break the economy* - fratstud October 31, 2023, 7:37:18
- Just dropped another 10 grand in* - fratstud October 30, 2023, 7:38:46
- Lots of Jones out there to keep up with (wealth numbers) - Potomac October 27, 2023, 8:30:04
- Pulled the trigger on those 10 month 5.3% CDs last night. - EffinIllini October 26, 2023, 12:00:41
- Mortgage rates above 8%. The company I have been at is shutting down* - JeffFrank October 23, 2023, 15:12:11
- House next door to me to me sold for $750k on Monday. - EffinIllini October 26, 2023, 14:42:31
- An appraiser friend's business has been very slow, of course - Potomac October 26, 2023, 13:18:10
- Interviewer: "Jeff...do - HimeysPharmacist October 23, 2023, 22:37:11
- Sorry Jeff…..best of luck. Back to dealing for now?* - villain October 23, 2023, 21:52:55
- booo* - Superman October 23, 2023, 21:46:29
- Sorry JF. * - harb99 October 23, 2023, 21:42:29
- Sorry to hear that.* - Lexillini October 23, 2023, 20:55:21
- and not coming down anytime soon.* - Ari Gold October 23, 2023, 20:44:17
- Damn - HimeysPharmacist October 23, 2023, 17:32:12
- ugh. sorry jeff.* - arthurkirkland October 23, 2023, 16:38:50
- have you had time to think about what's next yet?* - Potomac October 23, 2023, 15:43:42
- ooo - JeffFrank October 23, 2023, 18:47:26
- Sorry to hear that. You were basically an eat what you kill freelance bro, though, right?* - fratstud October 23, 2023, 15:30:04
- VGLT, a 10 month CD at 5.3%, sit in savings at 4.3%, or buy Novo Nordisk. - EffinIllini October 23, 2023, 11:00:30
- popular direct is at 5.4% savings fdic* - Superman October 23, 2023, 21:13:19
- ui credit union has a 9 mo at 5% that I threw a large chunk of our savings into* - Karl Hungus October 23, 2023, 18:07:40
- I am still not touching long-term paper* - Potomac October 23, 2023, 11:10:03
- unless there is a real chance of needing the money within 10 months scratch the latter - Superman October 23, 2023, 11:03:04
- Didn't know if CDs would still be headed up and to wait it out a bit. - EffinIllini October 23, 2023, 11:14:00
- Does he mean a 10 year CD? 10 months seems odd* - fratstud October 23, 2023, 11:07:51
- I picked up a 7 month for 5.15% a couple weeks ago* - Figs October 23, 2023, 15:09:32
- Capital One 10 month CD at 5.3% - EffinIllini October 23, 2023, 11:15:10
- I just did a modest Roth conversion on a beaten-down bond fund* - Potomac October 23, 2023, 11:13:04
- Schwab sells 1 mo, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 2 yr, 3 yr, 4, 5, 10...* - Potomac October 23, 2023, 11:11:56
- Bought another 5k today. I have no idea what the future for our economy will be - fratstud October 20, 2023, 15:47:15
- i fired a pea bullet at vglt last week - Superman October 18, 2023, 16:19:08
- lee cooperman and jamie dimon still don’t seem to be fans of this strategy.* - Ari Gold October 13, 2023, 12:26:03
- Just put another ten grand into 20 year paper. This bubble is '99 and '08 combined and - fratstud October 11, 2023, 12:42:48
- Good God I'm getting throttled on these bonds. Absolutely throttled. Good thing - fratstud October 4, 2023, 17:06:30
- 5.09 bid on the 20 at the open. Millions of Millennials are on the precipice of learning the - fratstud October 3, 2023, 8:38:57
- We just broke 5 on the 20 year. This is momentous* - fratstud September 28, 2023, 9:42:21
- didn’t jamie dimon say he could see rates going to 7?* - Ari Gold September 27, 2023, 16:50:17
- I don't think they can control inflation. Hope I'm wrong.* - DouchieHowser September 27, 2023, 6:58:20
- Guest on Fast Money yesterday said maybe 4.75% top, with 5.25% as a chance - Potomac September 26, 2023, 9:32:30
- Adfession. I know virtually nothing about treasuries, CD's, bonds, etc. - Figs September 26, 2023, 9:31:53
- The entire yield curve is a market, but the short end of it is almost completely - fratstud September 26, 2023, 9:52:11
- TTMLIF…. - kokomojo September 27, 2023, 9:15:46
- if you have spare money, at least put it in a money market - Potomac September 26, 2023, 9:35:55
- long-term if you think inflation and rates will go down soon enough - Potomac September 26, 2023, 9:34:24
- Just dropped another 10 grand in. My old man talked some sense into me. He said: - fratstud September 26, 2023, 8:44:39
- I too have almost $300k just lying around.* - Lexillini September 25, 2023, 15:29:23
- My Treasurys are all under 1 year - Potomac September 25, 2023, 15:29:18
- If you put 100k into gold 5 years ago. - Cool Hand Luke September 25, 2023, 15:28:01
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