What I sort of said was how there are three levels of teams in this current playoff tournament.
Expected to contend almost every season:
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Great regular season, but the rookies lack playoff experience:
Dallas Cowboys
Have been trying to break through for several seasons:
Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons
Then, I analyzed them one by one:
New England Patriots (15-2)
Are they the "Donald Trump" of the NFL? Yes, they won the official score, but it was because they cheated. What stood out to me was the way their team only has TWO losing seasons since 1995, or something crazy like that. They've even had an 11-5 season that didn't qualify for the playoffs.
Historically, they should be playing in their sixth consecutive AFC championship, with the only concern being a 2-3 record in the recent games. I picture them playing in eight Super Bowls, with a 4-4 overall record.
In recent history, they played sloppy against the Texans. It felt kind of lucky that the Texans couldn't convert really good field position into much more than two field goals and a TD.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
What stood out to me was how they went 6-0 against a pretty strong division. In week 1, they were in trouble (10-27 deficit?) before forcing OT. Then, you had the wild Denver game where both teams were trading points back and forth, and Denver tried to win with a 62-yard FG attempt instead of playing for the tie.
I know they're usually near the top of the league in scoring defense, but how are they able to create points of their own? In the run game, I don't think they had a 1,000 yard back (individually), which is possibly explained by Jamaal Charles not being able to fully return from his ACL surgery. Alex Smith might not give the ball away, but he was only responsible for 20 total TDs, five of which came on the ground (to lead the team). Travis Kelce had a streak of 100 yard games, mostly (or totally?) without scoring TDs!! Jeremy Maclin wasn't their 1,000 yard guy. Tyreek Hill emerged as a player who could score up to four different ways, including the team lead with six TD catches. I would argue he was almost more valuable as a runner, like one fantasy week when he only carried the ball once and it was a 75 yard score.
The closest they've been to a Super Bowl since the 1960s was in 1994, I believe. Their recent playoff history has only been a 2-5 record.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
It's hard to believe they started 4-5! I know that Le'Veon Bell was suspended again (he keeps using marijuana in the offseason?). Ben had some injuries, too.
Historically, you think of this team as also playing in eight Super Bowls, and having the most wins (six). Their most recent championship game appearance was in 2011, before losing the Super Bowl.
In their recent history, I tuned out of the first game when the score was too one-sided (20-3 or 20-6). The box score looks like they just pounded away with Le'Veon Bell. It could be running weather again in KC.
Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Only the Giants were able to beat them in the games they were trying to win, and those were way too close for comfort (19-20 and 7-10?). I wouldn't have guessed that Cole Beasley was their leading receiver. Dez Bryant missed three games along the way.
With the Cowboys, I think you're also talking about eight total Super Bowls (5-3 record), but not since 1996. A few years ago, their fans seemed to think that Dez Bryant made a catch on a call that didn't go their way (even after replay?).
Atlanta Falcons (12-5)
I remember saying that I can't really prove it, but I had thought to myself at the end of the preseason that Atlanta and Chicago would be two "surprise" NFC teams this season. Since I didn't specify in what way Chicago might "surprise," maybe that was accurate in the sense of last place, and Jay Cutler on the bench?
My reasoning behind Atlanta is that, when you think of QBs like a Philip Rivers, or Tony Romo, or Matt Ryan, they have the raw talent to advance in the playoffs. It just hasn't happened yet. This year, it looked like Atlanta kept their running game steady (despite diluting Devonta Freeman's fantasy value a little bit), and Julio Jones still gained a bunch of yards (while barely scoring?). Their defense got better over time, too.
In overall and recent playoff history, I saw how they've played in two NFC championships since 2004, but I had forgotten those games somehow. I only remember one Super Bowl loss to the Broncos.
Against Seattle, I was about 52% to 55% in favor of picking them. It looks like they were able to avoid turnovers, and they had plenty of sustained scoring drives. It couldn't have hurt for them to intercept Russell Wilson twice in the fourth quarter, even if a comeback was unlikely.
Whether they host the Packers or travel to Dallas, I still might not fully believe in them to reach the next level.
Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Finally, you have this 4-6 team that started to turn things around with defense (three games of allowing 12.0 points on average), and then putting it all together offensively.
They've been amazingly consistent at qualifying for the playoffs (eight consecutive years, nine times in 10 seasons), but not at winning the whole thing. Then again, the Patriots only have one Super Bowl win in the past decade, too. I thought they really got cheated in 2015, when Seattle made that unlikely comeback with unorthodox play calls (keep running during the 2:00 drill when you also need to recover an onside kick).
********
If I had to pick two teams on the spot, I'd say that the Steelers and the Packers are playing the best football right this moment. As I wrote, though, how can you ever overlook the Patriots or the Steelers? It's also not as if the Falcons wouldn't be able to beat a few of the AFC teams, but they might not get that far.
OK. Hopefully I don't lose this info again while I proofread.
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