I wondered if it might be easier to name teams that AREN'T likely to go to a Super Bowl? Is there a difference between just getting there, versus having a chance to win the game? Like, is it more impressive that the Bills went to four of them in a row, or is it not impressive, because they lost each of the four games? I think one was kind of close until a weird 28 or 35 point quarter by the Redskins. The Giants one should still be the closest score in Super Bowl history, and the Bills had a little bit of control over possibly winning with a field goal. Then, the rematch with the Cowboys was at least a close game at the half. I can also remember seasons where it was something like Broncos vs Falcons, and you already knew the outcome before the game started.
Based on Pro Football Reference, one of the most historically disappointing teams is probably the Arizona Cardinals. It looks like they've been playing since 1920 (97 seasons), with only 10 playoff appearances! The funny thing is, they were in the NFC Championship game just a year ago, and I actually wondered if they were the best team in the NFC (despite how the Panthers blew them out in a home game). They also have the second-lowest overall win percentage (probably just tracking regular season games), although they're 37/100ths of a point better than the Buccaneers in last place.
If you want to talk about the other teams with a low number of playoff appearances, some of that seems to be explained by how they only entered the league in the past two decades. I might be tempted to go easier on the Texans, who have only played 15 seasons, but they also have just two double-digit win seasons (12-4 was the high mark) and then a 3-4 playoff record, with no advancing to the conference championship game.
Between the Jaguars and the Panthers, I'd say the Panthers are the more "successful" team, but it's hard to compare "apples to apples." The Panthers seem pretty "mercurial," since they've recorded a 1-15 season AND a 15-1 season. Look at just the last seven years: 2-14, 6-10, 7-9, 12-4, 7-8-1 (good enough to "win" a division), 15-1, 6-10. The Jaguars just feel consistently "bad," with no winning seasons since 2007. Remember how they started off playing in two conference championships (spread a few years apart) under Tom Coughlin? Neither game was very close, though. The Panthers have at least played in two Super Bowls, but only the first appearance was competitive.
The Bengals are an interesting case, because six of their 14 playoff appearances have come since 2009. The trouble is how they keep losing in the first game. It looks like their last playoff win was in 1990. Prior to that, they actually gave the 49ers two scares in the Super Bowl.
The Jets have won a Super Bowl, but they haven't gone back to any more of them. I do see how they've lost three conference championship games in the past 20 seasons. What's strange is how Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez took them there in consecutive seasons, and he's not even a starting level QB in the current NFL.
You at least have to make the playoffs to reach the Super Bowl, right? If I'm not mistaken, the Buffalo Bills have the longest current streak of not appearing in a playoff game (since 1999). I'm wondering if that game was the "Music City Miracle," when the Titans went all the way to the Super Bowl and then got tackled on the 1 yard line to end the game. The Bills do have two winning seasons since 1999, but none with double-digit wins.
After that, it probably gets hard to list all of the teams. I would think of the Browns, the Lions, and the Vikings as examples of teams not likely to even reach the Super Bowl. It's hard for me to remember, but the Browns were actually 10-6 as recently as 2007 (without making the playoffs). That year, it looks like Jamal Lewis ran the ball for them (before eventually going to jail?). The Lions obviously made the playoffs just this year, but they finished the season with four consecutive losses (Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks). It looks like they went to the 1991 NFC championship game, but the Redskins blew them out. Then, the Vikings look a little bit surprising, since their win percentage is the ninth best all-time. They're on a five game losing streak in the conference championship. I definitely picked them to win in 1998 (15-1 season), and I probably favored them in 2009 (Brett Favre trying to force a throw as usual). In 2000, I couldn't root against the Giants, but the matchup did scare me before seeing the final score (41-0).
The other weird teams for me would be the Chargers and the Oilers. The Chargers have had LaDainian Tomlinson. They still have a diminished Antonio Gates, and Philip Rivers is probably a top 10 or 12 QB at worst, although I can't think of a time when he would've risen into the top five. How did Rivers even replace Drew Brees? The story with them in the mid-2000s seemed to be: win a division, take a bye week, lose a playoff game. Their one recent conference championship game was against the 17-0 Patriots, but that would've been a pretty neat upset (the Giants had to do it instead).
The Oilers have played in Houston and Tennessee, and are now the Titans. I think they would've been in Super Bowl II if they were able to beat the Raiders. In the late 1970s, they ran into the Steelers twice. Then I see a streak of seven consecutive playoff berths all ending in the divisional round or earlier (Warren Moon era). The Titans actually had the league's best record in 2008, but that was a weird playoff tournament where the Steelers eventually beat the Cardinals in the Super Bowl (and the Giants were undefeated at the Steelers and at the Cardinals during the regular season).
I guess I'll leave this post with non-contenders, and then "reply" to it with analysis of the 2016/2017 teams that haven't been eliminated yet.
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