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Sorry for another top of the board and this chart isn't quite right but I've given up trying to get ChatGPT to generate what I want. But I still think it's useful:



(For those on X it comes from here https://x.com/EFCanalytics/status/2057112721959588030 .)

Blue line is our expected goal difference and broadly tracks performance. It shows an upward trend under Silva and then improved upon by Ancelotti, but tails off. Nose dives under Benitez, stabilises at a low rate under Lampard, improved by Dyche but now basically 0. On this metric we are FC Stability. Pro Moyes.

The yellow line is the difference between our wage bill and the league average. We see the early Moshiri years where that is consistently spending the league average and gets very high under Ancelotti. We then have managed decline as it drops off significantly under Benitez, Lampard, Dyche, and also Moyes.

Perhaps the best way to judge the manager, therefore is the gap between expected goals and wage bill. In this case we have four types of manager:

- Expensive squad and does well: Silva and Ancelotti
- Expensive squad and do shit: Benitez
- Cheap squad and do well: Allardyce, Dyche, Moyes

But if you look at the vertical gap between the two lines, you see:
- Biggest underperformance: Ancelotti
- Biggest overperformance: Moyes

I think there's a myth that Moyes wasted a load of money in the summer and that our recent performances are terrible. Not true. Moyes has got us to be consistently over performing our spending and the assumption should be that more investment in the squad will increase performances on the pitch. A significant factor in missing out on points recently is conceding late goals and not getting penalties. Moyes deserves criticism for some of that, but also important to take a step back and see the overall picture. I hope the CEO is doing likewise. We have a platform for growth now. Give Moyes better players then judge him.