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Estimates regarding the death toll from USAID funding cuts and restructuring in 2025 vary, with some models suggesting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the first year and projecting millions more by 2030.

Estimated Deaths to Date (As of Early 2026)
Over 750,000 Deaths: Modeling from ImpactCounter, a project tracking the impact of USAID funding cuts on global health, estimated that over 757,314 people had died due to the 90-day USAID funding pause and subsequent cuts as of January 2026.
Over 500,000 Children: The same model suggests that more than 500,000 of these deaths were children.
500,000 to 1,000,000 Lives Lost: Analysis from the Center for Global Development (CGD) suggested that the decline in actual spending (outlays) in 2025 led to between 500,000 and 1,000,000 deaths.
Specific Impacts: The cuts affected programs for HIV/AIDS (estimated 159,000+ adult deaths), pneumonia (164,000+ child deaths), diarrhea (125,000+ child deaths), and malaria (70,000+ deaths)

Future Projections (By 2030)
14 Million+ Deaths: A study published in The Lancet and widely reported, including by researchers at UCLA, projects that continued steep funding cuts to USAID could result in more than 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030, which includes over 4.5 million children under the age of five.
Oxfam Estimates: Oxfam warned that the aid cuts could lead to a child under five dying every 40 seconds by 2030.