The Conservatives in Canada had this election utterly sewn up, just a few months ago. People here are done with Trudeau and, by extension, the Liberal Party. Poilievre (Conservative leader) was an absolute shoo in - had a 20+ point poll lead.

Until Trump.

Trump has turned Canada against the US in a way I never thought I’d see. It’s become a cultural thing - even in team meetings, if someone gets a coffee the instant call is ‘Make sure it’s not Starbucks.’ There’s a huge backlash about the tariffs that has united all voters right across the country, no matter which party you’d typically tick your box for.

Carney standing up to Trump is key to him and the Liberals having any of chance of staying in power. He’s already called out Poilievre as someone who’ll ’kneel at the altar of Trump’. And it’s working. Polling has gotten MUCH closer. Swing voters are siding with him. Even some Conservative voters see the appeal of a man regarded as fiscally responsible (a typical complaint the right has about the left) AND whose words are demonstrating he’ll stand up to Trump.

It’s the right thing to do but it’s also his only move. I expect we’ll hear him loudly and proudly talking up Canada / down Trump over the coming weeks. And he’ll take regular shots at connecting Poilievre to Trump and his politics.

The hope is that other leaders across the West see that as a catalyst to do the same. I think there’s a fear of the bully that’s stopping many from sticking their heads above that parapet. But, if they see Carney gaining popularity because of it, you bet a few will join him.