Previous Message

Another of those "what summer might bring" posts but boy do I feel like writing one.

If I had to guess Allan and Gomes are near certain to leave. Probably both of Richarlison and DCL. If Townsend had, as I remember being reported, an option for second year I wouldn't be surprised if it's not exercised. But it could have been e.g. appearance based so club might not have a say.

As I noted below, Delph shouldn't be offered an extension. He would be good for about 10 matches and would still want a sizeable contract. Mina likewise. Maybe we could get 15 matches out of him.

Kenny is also pointless. He's simply not PL level and never will.

Looking at our financial situation and the fact these players underperformed massively I don't thinkt there are many players who club would even try to hold on. Deals always hinge on players perceived value for the selling and buying clubs. If the latter is bigger a deal is possible. And you have to factor in wages.

So who could we move forward? Wages might be an issue in many cases but Keane could still have some interest, especially for teams that have a good structure and like defending deep. Doucoure could also work better in a team that is on the backfoot, something I believe Lampard will want to change next season. Gray had a mixed season. Great early on but mostly poor in the second half of the season. We should be able to make a decent profit on him.

Holgate has increased his standing massively during this pressure cooker time. He might actually be worth holding on as he's of good age, English (HG rules) and clearly seems to have improved under Lampard.

Iwobi hopefully is a key player next year. Any offer would need to be in the ballpark we paid for him so I doubt it.

There have been rumours about Pickford. I wouldn't be surprised but he also has increased in value (for EFC) lately.

The players that I don't expect to be for sale (as in, worth more to us than any buyers) are Gordon, Patterson, Mykolenko, Godfrey. Club probably wouldn't mind getting rid of Rondon but that might be a tall task.

Coleman has a year left. He will see that out. Davies is hard to tell. Not sure how he would fit Lampard's style but on the other hand he isn't on a big contract & loves the city & club. So could be somewhat useful as backup. And good age still.

Alli is another hard to tell. I suspect if someone offers 20 million he might be off. But who would that be?

Following speculation is based on Thelwell's previous work and the assumption he GETS TO DO HIS BLOODY WORK.

Both at Wolves and NYRB Thelwell very much concentrated on youth. At the latter he lowered average age considerably and I think made them the youngest team in MLS. The big question mark is how big a hand he actually had at Wolves and how much was agent driven. They made a lot of good signings there, though:
- Jota (14 million€),
- Neves (18 m€),
- Traore (20m€),
- Dendoncker (14m€),
- Coady (3m€).

(Prices in euros as I checked them from Transfermarkt.)

These guys were 22, 20, 22, 24 and 22 when Wolves signed them. This is another reason I think Keane and Doucoure are for sale, both are now 29. So even if they could have some use next season their value will start to rapidly decline.

I reckon values could be around these ballparks (and I try to be conservative with these estimates):
- DCL & Richy. 50-60 million. Depends on who are interested & if there would be an auction. But hard to see club seliing either for less.
- Allan. 10 million. Still highly regarded in Italu. Is 31, but should still be able to play there for 4 years easily.
- Keane and Doucoure 15-20 million.
- Gomes 10 million.
- Pickford 25 million, but question is where would he go? Still England's #1 and that has worth off the field as well (marketing).
- Mina 10-15 million. His injury record is a big issue. If some club thinks they can do something about it, easily worth 15.
- Gray 10-15 million. Good number of goals and has a skillset that many clubs could use.

Considering what Championship teams pay for average players I don't think those values are that much.

Taking all that into account I would go for something like this:

Pickford / Begovic
Patterson / Coleman
New CB (to replace Mina) / New CB (to replace Keane) / Holgate / Godfrey / Branthwaite
Mykolenko

New DCM
New CM (to replace Allan) / New CM (to replace Doucoure) / Davies
Iwobi / Alli
Gordon / Gray / New winger (to replace Richarlison)
New CF (to replace DCL) / Rondon

That's more change than I thought. But club will not be able to shift everyone. Maybe couple of the youngsters could play a part (Dobbin, Simms?).

Clearly most pressing would be to replace Richarlison and DCL and central midfield. Hopefully Thelwell can find a new Neves and Dendoncker. A CB to replace Mina is also crucial

Remember, club could also make two loans.