on May 18, 2022, 5:34 pm, in reply to "I don't think that there're any statistics involved, it's not really a serious analysis but rather"
That’s is indeed 3^5 = 243
Previous Message
meant to offer us some comfort! Previous Message
There surely aren’t THAT many permutations (243?) left?
It’s only us, Burnley and Leeds left in the mix, and Leeds only have one game remaining (three possible outcomes). Each of us and Burnley have six possible outcomes. You can’t factor in actual score lines (e.g. 1-0, 2-1 etc) otherwise the permutations are limitless. So, you’d need to simply work on the basis of Everton/Leeds/Burnley have better GD/better GF/better GA/head to head records.
I dunno, maybe it does stack up to 243. Perhaps a stats whizz on here could validate?! If only to bring me some extra comfort that our chances of dropping really are in the 6%-7% range!
Previous Message
...and I'm not bad at maths, but where does the 243 come from? Is it basically all the permutations that would make a difference in terms of win, draw, loss, goals scored, goal difference etc. etc.?
Unsurprisingly the 16/243 didn't reassure me one jot by the way!
Responses