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I favour AJ but your comments on Usyk
He's never really been caught. I have no doubt that if AJ smashes him then it's game over, but will he? No-one else has and that's because Usyks so elusive, his defence is awesome. A lot depends on the ref if AJ tries to lean on him and control him inside IMO.
My take is that this might be closer than people think. I don't think he is that much smaller that it makes so much difference. He wasn't comfortable with Chisora, who is deffo a lot less of a level than AJ, but then he wasn't in a lot of actual trouble either.
I think round 9-12 TKO for AJ. If he is smart. I don't see him tagging Usyk early on so he might as well wait and see how it progresses. He might have to take some shots to score some. He is a lot bigger and more powerful, but that only matters fully when you connect and Usyk is ####ing elusive.
Usyk is a lovely boxer but too small and to light handed when he gets caught
Firstly the points system makes it seem more precise than it is. In truth almost every round will be scored 10-9 absent a knockdown or a low blow, so for each judge who won ends up being who won the most rounds.
If the judge tossed a coin to decide who won each round, there would be a 22% chance of a 6-6 split on rounds and the judge scoring it a draw.
If the other judges split the decision then the match is a draw. The margin the other judges had doesn't matter.
You have to assume that given the high KO% in heavyweight fights any title fights going the distance are fairly evenly matched.