and making all sorts of legal challenges as to ballot fraud, foreign interference, and various technical missteps.
Trump's biggest helper last time was a strong 3rd party showing. He seldom got to 50% of key states
There is no strong 3rd party this time. Putin obviously didn't bother
So he needs to be at 50% and he is nowhere near that in key states. Biden is already over the top of 50%
Then it is widely accepted that GOP needs a low turnout. Last time sadly Black voters in places like Flint and Gary didn't turn up
This year we are seeing record voting already The election has started and by election day will be largely over.
The returns don't show which party they voted for but you can see if they are registered to a party and also the district
The huge turnout is overwhelmingly Democrat
The polls last time called it largely correct within MoA in the raw data. Most national vote were HC +3/4 it was +2
They made a mistake not noticing the huge number of undecided. Then they decided to allocate them 50/50 when in some states it ended up 70/30 Trump
They under played the white non college degree demographic.
This is a story of huge volatility
Go forward to 2020
There has never been a more stable race with fewer undecideds. After all who is thinking about Trump still
Nationally Biden +8 It is almost exactly translating into the swing states for example Florida +1-2 Michigan +7 ( he won this last time by 0.2%)
To back this up and this is more important when you look at house race polls and even county level the GOP is being destroyed
If I was a betting man I'd say Trump is over represented in the polls
He will hold Texas by 2 but lose Florida, NC, Arizona,WI, MI PA and I'm going to throw in Ohio and Iowa
Over the last two weeks Biden has on average widened his lead.
To look at one poll is statistical nonsense
Yes as predicted by many itís now neck and neck with Florida to close to call sorta expected that this would happen and I have to say I will be surprised if Trump doesnít win another term now