on May 5, 2026, 13:11:03, in reply to "just don’t buy any more long duration bonds.*"
Previous MessagePrevious Message
need to stop being a pu$$y and start going ballz deep on your contracts. I can't slide it in for you, brah. You didn't hear me and auto go all flaccid on XOM and VLO when the Germ hit and every media asshole declared oil to be dead. These sorts of opportunities only come along every once in a while. As soon as you start making money the contracts will reprice or some Chad with a supercomputer will front run so your window to print is very short. If you have an 80% confidence pick what you're okay losing if you hit a rogue wave and put it down. Previous Message
a lot of computer model research for longer term trends and then some individual storm tracking to determine rainfall trends.
i’ve made most of my money in monthly rainfall totals. people aren’t very smart. i can make money on the end timeline as well as ups and downs during the month based on the uneducates knee jerks.
unlike sports betting this is nowhere near a 50-50 loss scenario for me. in fact i think i win around 80% equivalent on my investments. i just dont have the balls to scale up Previous Message
having a hard time making myself scale my bets way up as i should Previous Message
From today's WSJ:
Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket advertise themselves as life-changing tools for regular people—implying everyone has a fair chance to score. “I was about to be unable to pay my rent, but I got two years of rent through Kalshi’s predictions,” gushed one woman in a Kalshi ad on TikTok.
But for most users the reality is nothing like that.
Instead, casual traders are bleeding cash while a small number of sophisticated pros—including trading firms with access to vast streams of data—eat their lunch , according to a Journal analysis of platform data and interviews with traders.
On Polymarket, the Journal found, 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. That means less than 2,000 accounts netted a total of nearly half a billion dollars. The Journal analyzed 1.6 million Polymarket accounts that have traded since November 2022. There are at least 2.3 million total accounts on the site.
...
Traders have been shelling out for access to big-data streams from third-party providers to have a leg up. Computers use the data and algorithms to predict price movements and manage risk, faster than any human. The pros also make use of their scale to make frequent, strategic trades—sometimes tens of thousands a day—and book profits on incremental moves, with a measure of attention and discipline rarely seen in recreational users.
Casual traders “have no chance. Systematically,” said Michael Boss, a former professional poker player and a statistician by training. On Kalshi, Boss places 60 trades a minute and modifies his bids and asks 30 times a second.
* * *
Another thing in the article is "mention markets" - bet that someone will say the word X in an interview or whatever. The pros stay away from them because they are too random and non-analytical. Average Joes way over-estimate the likelihood of "mentions" and regularly lose.
F ATL16
