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New probabilities
Posted by Realistic on 28/4/2026, 21:39:16
With Stockport's defeat tonight, our play-off chances have gone up from 23.4% to 27.5% (making the fair bookies' price 3.64).
Were we to win Saturday, the chances of making play-offs now go up from 60% before tonight to 72%
Re: New probabilities
Posted by Northeasthatter on 29/4/2026, 5:19:36, in reply to "New probabilities"
Reckon we're the more nervy team as we have 4 games to look out for. Plymouth only need to look out for us and Stevenage. Gonna be a cracking day of footie we just need to win our game..... Having said the same thing last game of season last year doh!!!!!!
I reckon Stockport and Bradford will be the most nervous, to miss out on the last day after being in the top six pretty much all season will be a crusher.
Re: New probabilities
Posted by Mathew on 29/4/2026, 1:42:28, in reply to "New probabilities"
I'm sure as soon as I post this I'll spot some dumb mistake I've made...
Posted by The Outsider on 30/4/2026, 1:19:28, in reply to "Re: New probabilities" VIP
I had some good practice last week on this Bedford Town flowchart - the bit on the right about 11/12/13 goals was wrong as it understated the gap but also needed a GD swing to be taken into account as any combination making up a 23 goal swing could have affected the outcome (as I said, very unlikely)
Re: New probabilities
Posted by Honey Badger on 28/4/2026, 22:58:50, in reply to "New probabilities"
Simple fact is we have to win at Bolton, if that happens we're as good as in the play offs!
Re: New probabilities
Posted by TheDunstableWindsock on 28/4/2026, 23:00:28, in reply to "Re: New probabilities"
If we do win then Bradford, Stockport and Stevenage need to get something from their games. Squeaky bum time!
Re: New probabilities
Posted by Sandgrounder on 28/4/2026, 21:45:21, in reply to "New probabilities"
So we’re in the play offs if…
We win and one or more of the following happen: Stockport lose away to Barnsley Bradford lose away to Exeter Stevenage fail to win at home to Wigan
We draw and both of the following happen: Stevenage lose at home to Wigan Plymouth fail to win away to Northampton
Except that Port Vale's recent form has been half decent whereas Stockport's isn't. Given how Barnsley played against us, and they won tonight, I fully expect them to beat Stockport on Saturday. Live justly, love mercy, perpetuate generosity, walk humbly.
Re: New probabilities
Posted by Terry in the office on 28/4/2026, 22:34:13, in reply to "Re: New probabilities"
Before tonight Stockport had taken 11 points from their last 6 games whereas Port Vale had taken 8 from theirs.
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What you read on here is 100% conjecture, fiction, lies, bullshit and complete bollocks. If you want to be taken seriously, you are in the wrong place.
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on 28/4/2026, 21:39:16
