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    A glimmer of hope.

    Posted by Don Logan on 25/3/2020, 8:55:55

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-half-uk-population-oxford-university-study-finds-a4396721.html

      Re: A glimmer of hope.

      Posted by Joe Stalin on 25/3/2020, 10:38:40, in reply to "A glimmer of hope."

      But not very likely. If the mortality rate is consistent, then there would have been 1,000's of deaths that would have not gone unnoticed - especially with the obvious symptoms of COVID-19.
      In yesterdays deaths, 21 where in 1 hospital in North London, if that was happening around the country, then it would have raised lots of flags.

        Re: A glimmer of hope.

        Posted by Mahatma Gander on 25/3/2020, 12:33:06, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

        Has anywhere done enough wider testing though to know?

        Possibly the mortality rate is much lower because so many have had it and written it off as something minor.

        Or am I clutching at straws?

          Re: A glimmer of hope.

          Posted by 4-4-2 on 25/3/2020, 13:18:46, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

          My cousin has almost certainly had it based on his symptoms. He couldn't get tested and self-isolated and as such he will not be counted as one of the "positive" statistics i.e. someone who has pulled through.

          We're telling people who have symptoms but aren't acutely unwell to stay at home and reserve limited testing resources for those who really need it.

          The ratio of those who survive it compared to those who die is almost certainly better than the official statistics suggest.

            Re: A glimmer of hope.

            Posted by Mahatma Gander on 25/3/2020, 13:49:40, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

            Yes and that's the right approach of course.

            As I understand it you can only test positive while you actually have it with current tests but if we could just get that test ready for post illness detection and apply it to a representative sample it could shed some real light.

            Re: A glimmer of hope.

            Posted by Peter Griffin on 25/3/2020, 12:53:19, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

            Exactly that MG

            Re: A glimmer of hope.

            Posted by bbb on 25/3/2020, 10:45:36, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

            Perhaps the virus has just mutated since then?

              Re: A glimmer of hope.

              Posted by Joe Stalin on 25/3/2020, 10:55:09, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

              Maybe...

            Re: A glimmer of hope.

            Posted by bbb on 25/3/2020, 9:46:57, in reply to "A glimmer of hope."

            There was a theory I was reading the other day that it may have been a little earlier than that. I spent most of the Christmas period in bed, as ill as i can remember being with all the symptoms of this virus. I know plenty of others that were similar at the same time.

              Re: A glimmer of hope.

              Posted by Suffolk Punch on 25/3/2020, 10:30:22, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

              The son of Mrs P's best friend is a consultant at King's in central London. Apparently the view that it's been about for longer than is reckoned is generally accepted amongst senior staff there - possibly since before Xmas.

              Certainly, Mrs P and I had something in mid Jan that had all the CV19 symptoms, and a nasty bugger it was too - and we had the flu jab.

                Re: A glimmer of hope.

                Posted by Mahatma Gander on 25/3/2020, 12:36:01, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                Lots of people, myself included had a bug around then that had similarities but that seemed to last for weeks which doesn't fit and only seemed to peak briefly enough to make me think about time off.

                  Re: A glimmer of hope.

                  Posted by Nearly a Genius on 25/3/2020, 10:51:27, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                  The flu jab is given against the strain(s) of flu which the medics' "best guess" is the one that will be going around, so that they prepare the vaccine months in advance.

                  So yours could have been an 'ordinary' strain of flu that hadn't been prepared for.

                    Re: A glimmer of hope.

                    Posted by Suffolk Punch on 25/3/2020, 11:03:47, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                    I know, and it probably was. But the similarity in symptoms leaves a niggling doubt.

                      Re: A glimmer of hope.

                      Posted by Nearly a Genius on 25/3/2020, 11:28:30, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                      Ok, fair enough.

                  Re: A glimmer of hope.

                  Posted by Don Logan on 25/3/2020, 9:57:07, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                  London is a world hub as well mate.

                  Those of us who work outside, brush off a cold as one of the “hazards” of the job and generally don’t take time off for it. Early Jan though, there were many more than usual people absent ill from sites.

                  The common phrase was, “we need some really cold weather to kill all these bugs and viruses”

                  It does make you wonder mate.

                    Re: A glimmer of hope.

                    Posted by Todd1433 on 25/3/2020, 10:17:48, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was here in December.

                    Throw in our Xmas/NY period- lots of parties, gatherings etc., then a fair bit of sickness in Jan/Feb, and it starts to look even more likely.

                    I stumbled across an article recently that was dated 2nd Jan, reporting on a significant rise in flu related hospitalisation cases over the NY. Hindsight would probably suggest it wasn’t flu after all.

                      Re: A glimmer of hope.

                      Posted by Question on 25/3/2020, 10:26:49, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                      Would that suggest the origin was not actually China, then? That is what crosses my mind from time to time.

                        Re: A glimmer of hope.

                        Posted by Todd1433 on 25/3/2020, 10:46:20, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                        Could still have been them, or maybe they’re a handy scapegoat?

                        We’ll probably never know the whole story, the antibody test will be a real eye opener I suspect. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that the real case figure is in six figures.

                        The death toll is still of course horrific, there are still thousands of grieving families, but if that proves to be true, then the hysteria inducing reporting has a lot to answer for.

                  Re: A glimmer of hope.

                  Posted by Realistic on 25/3/2020, 9:12:10, in reply to "A glimmer of hope."

                  Would be good news.

                  Hard to comment without seeing the paper, but it’s hard to tally that viewpoint with the fact that only around 10% of tests are positive, and that only sick people are being tested. Would be interesting to see the analysis.

                    Re: A glimmer of hope.

                    Posted by Garstang Hatter on 25/3/2020, 9:38:48, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                    Apparently the current test only shows if people are infected at the time of testing - not if they have previously had it. There may be another test coming shortly which will show that, which is what would be needed to back up or refute this study.

                      Backed by this

                      Posted by Ray on 25/3/2020, 9:14:28, in reply to "Re: A glimmer of hope."

                      Similar theme

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