Luton Outlaws - Independent Message Board for Luton Town FC

Copied from today's Times newsletter, but the graphics are missing. Some constructive criticism.

Interesting that he sees a lack of intensity as one of the problems - that has been our strength in the past.






James Gheerbrant
Sports Writer


A reader question, from Douglas Hamilton: "How can Luton Town set up and play in order to secure their place in the Premier League?"

Thanks for the question, Douglas. It’s been a difficult start to life in the top flight for the Hatters. Their next three fixtures – at home to Wolves, away to Everton and at home to Burnley – are winnable, but for now Rob Edwards’ side have no points to show for their first four games. Four of the five promoted teams to find themselves in this predicament have gone on to be relegated, three of them in last place:
 




 
Across their four matches so far, Luton’s opponents have had much the better of the balance of chances, with shots worth 8.3 expected goals (xG) conceded, whereas Luton have created only 4.5 xG. A differential of nearly -1 xG per match is clearly not sustainable if Luton are going to stay up.
 




 
So far, so ominous - but if you dig a little deeper, there are some more promising signs to cling on to. In Saturday’s match against Fulham, Luton actually had slightly the better of the chances, creating 1.1 xG off only 22 per cent possession. That’s the fifth most productive that a team has been with less than 23 per cent possession since the start of 2021-22:
 




 
If we look at Luton’s first three games, we can see that, despite having less than 40 per cent possession in each match, their number of touches in the final third and penalty area were respectable by comparison with what other teams have achieved against Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham in their past 20 Premier League games. So, Luton have shown an ability to turn a very limited share of the ball into territory and chances:
 








 
How could they get more bang for their buck going forward? Luton have a clearly defined tactical identity, based on a 3-5-2 formation, the hold-up play of their twin strikers, especially Carlton Morris, and getting the ball wide to the wing-backs. Edwards seems unlikely to deviate from that basic template, so rather than suggest fundamental changes, let’s focus on what Luton could do to improve within their way of playing.

In their first three games, one point of weakness that Luton suffered from was a lack of support runners in the half-spaces and a reluctance to play through those areas. Here’s a typical attack from the Brighton game: Ryan Giles has the ball on the left, Morris and Elijah Adebayo are in the box, but there’s no attacking presence in that left half-space: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu is barely in the shot. The cross is Giles’s only option, and as such, predictable:
 




 
This is a better and more dynamic attack from the same game, but again Luton fail to play in the areas that would really challenge Brighton’s defensive structure. If Tahith Chong attacks the space in front of Lewis Dunk, Luton have a four-on-three and the pass infield to Adebayo takes Dunk out of the game:
 




 
Instead, Chong bends his run towards the touchline and Brighton are defending a much less threatening wide cross:
 




 

 

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Playing through the half-spaces would allow Luton to pose more dilemmas for defending teams. They could give their ‘eights’ more licence to attack those areas, or – as Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United, another promoted team with a not dissimilar system, did – have the lateral centre backs make support runs.

Or there may be a different solution, one which seemed to present itself against Fulham. Edwards played Jacob Brown alongside Morris instead of Adebayo, and his willingness to play in those inside channels had an immediate effect. Here, Luton are attacking from a similar wide position, but this time Brown drifts into the right half-space. Fulham’s defensive structure is disrupted and Brown gets into a much more dangerous crossing position: his delivery for Amari’i Bell should lead to a goal:
 

 
Luton have also got to make more of set pieces. In the Championship last season, they ranked third for xG from set plays, and only tenth for xG from open play. It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect them to go from being a mid-ranking Championship team to a top-17 Premier League team in terms of open-play creativity; they really need to make dead-ball situations count. A return of 0.85 xG from set plays from four games so far is slightly disappointing:
 




 
To some extent, Luton simply need better execution from set plays. This is a good corner design against Chelsea, and if Ross Barkley can flick the ball to the back post, where Tom Lockyer and Reece Burke are lurking, it would be a very hard situation for Chelsea to defend. But Barkley just doesn’t make good enough contact:
 




 
Out of possession, Luton look to press high then transition into a 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 defensive block. But at the moment, they haven’t quite got the balance right, and have a tendency to fall back into that block too early, with not enough pressure on the ball. Here’s a good example from the Brighton game: Mo Dahoud simply has far too much time and space in front of him to pick out the run of Kaoru Mitoma. This leads to Brighton’s first goal:
 




 
Here’s a situation against Chelsea: again, there’s no pressure being applied by the midfield three, their only objective is to stop Chelsea playing through them - but it’s too easy to work a four-on-three overload and thus isolate Raheem Sterling against Giles:
 




 
It’s early days, but so far Luton are one of the least intense teams in the Premier League out of possession: they’re allowing their opponents 23 and a half passes for every defensive action they make.
 




 
Nottingham Forest showed last season that it is possible to defend in this way and survive, although they conceded 68 goals along the way. A slightly more disruptive defensive approach may stand them in better stead.