No way we get a constitutional amendment passed. If he tried to get on the ballot, states would immediately challenge, and his effort would lose in a rout.

Trump would be 82. He is more vigorous than Biden was, yet watch what three years do to him. As with lots of old people, to me Biden was on a certain slope downward that accelerated. We have probably all seen that in other elderly. Trump could reach an inflection point, too.

If he does poorly enough, people will want him gone anyway. If he does well enough, he should retire in triumph (in his mind), either standing aside for a free-for-all or picking a proposed successor.