Lead prices, as far as I have found, have little to do with current supply and demand. I have been told it is trading based on speculation and potential future shortages. Think about it: gas and oil are in no short supply, yet their prices fluctuate based on the "potential" for a shortage. Also, there is no way the ammunition manufacturers are sitting on a huge inventory of shot. If they were, they would build the current price, not what they paid, into the cost. I have not seen commercial shotgun shells go up a penny in over a year, yet a bag of shot has doubled. The good news is that if there is no foundation for current prices, they will come down dramatically in the future. Lead is being taken out of manufactured goods, and alternatives are being investigated. It makes no sense. My two cents. TomR