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Posted by Ralph Wood on March 18, 2026, 7:46:40, in reply to "Re: You left out the possibility..."
All of which is merely your perception of the situation, not universally shared, but to which you are certainly entitled. The situation is ongoing, and the final outcome not yet reached. Lost wars are stupid folly. Wars won get different treatment from history. Which this is to be remains to be seen. 
Previous Message
One might think that if Iran had managed a plan well thought out, the United States itself could manage something--anything--near as well thought out.
But one would be wrong, as the United States twists all so slowly, in the wind.
Those mullahs are laughing over their booze as former US allies give the US an exceptionally well-deserved finger.
Meanwhile, China acquires yet more and more power, to the complete detriment of the United States.
Sure, the United States has a plan: the problem is that it isn't a plan; it was never conceived as such, much less thought out, and; this plan--which clearly doesn't exist--can't be explained, has no substance and changes every few minutes.
I believe the lesson to be learned here is that any serious nation would be wise to hide the car keys from its particular version of Mr. Magoo.
RS Previous Message
Yes, Iran has thought their position out well, and had about 40 years to prepare. And yes, war is a mess. No plan survives the opening shots. When France and Britain decided that the invasion of Poland was "enough," and they elected to fight, France had carefully prepared its Maginot Line. Good plan. Well prepared. Then Churchill had to step in and face the situation nearly alone. See the movie "Darkest Hour" portraying his supreme confidence in the best possible outcome...Not.
It starts with a goal, not a plan. The plan gets cooked up by the military leaders when given the goal, then unravels at commencement. Improvisation follows. Churchill's goal...We will fight them on the beaches and landing grounds, and never surrender. George Bush, Sr.'s goal...This will not stand. Donald Trump's goal...Iran must never have nukes. Destruction follows. Abundant commentary is expressed. Somebody emerges on top. History gets written.
Wash, rinse, repeat. Previous Message
Of course laying mines is possible but the threat can be, and is, currently enforced by drone and missile.
Mines may be a last resort but, until then, Iran is selectively allowing transit, to its benefit. I can't for the life of me believe this wasn't thought out...selective transit was so obviously a tactic Iran could wield.
Well, actually, I can believe it wasn't thought out...just look at the mess, with more to come.
RS Previous Message
There is also the possibility that Iran starts to lay mines. The dumb ones don't care if the tankers are Chinese or not. The smarter ones can actually do some discrimination, but Iran likely has fewer of those, and we have probably destroyed a chunk of their inventory of all types (though I doubt we got anything like all of them.) They have threatened to use their mines. If they do, no currency will matter.
The flip side is that we might well find out how global China's navy truly is/can be. If their tankers and oil are stopped, their MCM forces might well show up to do what everyone else is avoiding.
We live in interesting times. Previous Message
...the yuan could partially supplant the dollar wrt oil; reportedly between 11 and 17 million barrels have transited Hormuz for China since February 28th, paid for strictly in yuan.
Should the yuan profit from this war--by way of China, India, Turkey and other states sidestepping the dollar in favor of the yuan--it will be the result of an unforced error which will cost the United States dearly, and rather quickly I might add.
And this wholly aside from the fact that Taiwan--whatever your geopolitical outlook--is, strategically speaking, being hung out to dry by this latest escapade, this time in the Middle East.
RS Previous Message
If China doesn’t take full advantage of this mess, they aren’t half as smart as I think they are. 1) Get Iran to stop shooting. 2) Get the GCC to expel all western forces and take over those bases. 3) Install air defenses to keep Israel out of Iran. 4) Buy all the oil they need. Zheng He 2.0. And the US will have just handed it to them! Previous Message
Normal minehunters cannot operate now in the Strait of Hormuz - the US Navy is still not able to escort ships through the strait. Likely, no USN ships operate so close to Iran.
The decision to ship the minehunters back was made by the same administration, which now asks other countries for help to clean up the mess, which it caused there.
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