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Posted by Ralph Wood on December 31, 2025, 6:23:06, in reply to "Re: North Korea displays apparent...Holy Snot Ralph!!"
So, because of one Soviet admiral, you are counting on this scenario to repeat for the world to be saved this time? If that works to make you happy, great, but I find that of zero comfort. There were three subs there. We just happened to bother the one carrying the force commander, who overrode the vessel captain, who was ordering the activation of a nuclear weapon. Had it been either of the other two subs, it would have been solely up to their captains. No idea what they would have chosen. And, in fact, the misinformation (actually lack of information) and mindset aboard that vessel that day is one prime example of the types of mistakes that can cause a conventional war to go nuclear. That captain thought World War III had started, and he was being attacked. He intended to do what he was trained to do...respond in kind. His superior decided to "surface and get more information." Weren't we all lucky? This time...
So, this is guaranteed to happen again? You're not really convincing my pessimistic side. Bless your greater faith in human nature, but I find the odds more discouraging. That is not entertaining to me, nor do I lead my life governed by my pessimistic side. I have a friend who is a survivalist. He has laid in a bunch of freeze dried food, medicines, fire starters, a generator, etc. He plans to be prepared. I barely have enough groceries for a week, and if my electric stove won't work there is no fire starting ability in my house. I discovered the box of matches I got years ago had been ruined by humidity when I did want to light a fire once. I have not replaced them. I suppose it could then be argued that I actually have greater faith in humanity than I let on, but the truth is I accept that I will die one day anyway, and if that's where the world goes, this place is actually a better place to die than anywhere else.
I suppose since the OP was about a ballistic missile submarine of a potential enemy, which could contribute to the end of civilization, that makes this still on topic somehow, but it's a long stretch. 
Previous Message
Do you remember one of the lynch pins of the Cuban Missile Crisis on the Soviet side? If you do, that's what I'm talking about. A certain decision NOT to commence a nuclear holocaust, and, no, I'm not talking about a decision made at the top of the hiearchy but one made near the bottom. Think about it. Previous Message
I acknowledge some facts. I add my admitted personal pessimism regarding human nature. I do not find the prospect entertaining. I don't see this as disjoint, contradictory or irrational. I don't want us destroying ourselves. I do not get ammusement from it, or the thought of it. I do feel pessimistic about the outcome should the war happen. That is not entertainment. It is based mostly on accidents which can arise in several possible scenarios I know of, none of which are guaranteed to even happen in the first place. I am then bewildered at what issue you have.
You wrote of bored people nuking each other for fun. I thought I made it clear I am not in that category. If it shocks you that I find some strong reasons to conclude it has a likelyhood of occuring, perhaps that's a good thing. Too many people think of war in an unrealistically detatched manner. Previous Message
I am not at all bored with it. I like peace. My life is currently a bit dull, but that is my business, and does not translate into me wanting us to destroy ourselves as some sort of "entertainment."
this one will likely end us as the globally interactive species we currently are. Survivors will be returned to isolated pockets like the stone age.
????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Previous Message
I am not at all bored with it. I like peace. My life is currently a bit dull, but that is my business, and does not translate into me wanting us to destroy ourselves as some sort of "entertainment."
However, China is moving both to invade Taiwan and control the resources in the waters around it. Japan is moving to resist. North Korea is moving to nuclear weapons and some greater naval clout. South Korea is strengthening itself in exchange. Cambodia and Thailand have shot at each other. Anybody who sees any sort of stability in this region has an interesting world view, which I would be up for listening to.
Unlike the Cold War where the two major powers fought any hot situations by proxy, the current Asian situation will require our armed intervention directly against China. Two nuclear powers openly at war with each other is "not an encouraging picture." Add in the likes of Kim Jong Un brandishing nuclear weapons nearby, and it looks "slightly more dismal."
I am thinking. There is a real possibility things can go from coventional to nuclear should war break out. Signals from China indicate they are more likely than not to execute their stated goal of invading Taiwan. Nothing about war is predictable. Should that event actually happen and we become directly involved, the possibility of nuclear war is very real.
I don't want that at all, but I will not make believe it could never happen. If the leaders of the region took the possibility more seriously, they might be less fixated on their current agendas and more fixated on real diplomacy, compromise, and cooperation. I don't see that. I see only rising tensions and an arms race.
Not good omens.
"Might well happen," or even "probably will result if it happens" is not a guarantee of it happening. And I don't live my whole life expecting it to. But, I am also not going to pretend it can't or won't. Previous Message
Maybe we need cooler heads to prevail instead of a bunch of Gee-I'm-Bored-Of-This-Extended-Period-Of-Relative-Global-Peace-So-Let's-All-Nuke-The-C**p-Outta-Each-Other-For-Fun.
Think, man, think. Previous Message
H I Sutton, Covert Shores, is a decent authoritative source. He finds it "credible." Its construction has actually been observed for a while:
https://www.hisutton.com/DPRK-SSN-Update.html
It is one thing to have one. Quite another to operate it. This is infancy if not a fake. One more step to making the region the most obvious flashpoint for the world's next serious global conflict, and one more indication to me that this one will likely end us as the globally interactive species we currently are. Survivors will be returned to isolated pockets like the stone age. Previous Message
Image to me is clay mockup or AI. Do you believe it is the actual vessel?
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-nuclear-submarine-trump-042354b0b38bb429f937a4ecb7f70df2
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