
The upshot is that the best case looks like this:
The Supreme Court upholds the rulings, and the two most drastic types of tariffs are struck down, leaving only the less drastic prior ones in place. Another court ruling "comes out of left field" (there isn't even a court case to my knowledge) and strikes down de minimis for now. That would be "back to normal" for the present. However, in the Summer of 2027, de minimis ends again, by law this time. Whatever tariffs are in effect at that point will be applied. Presumably, the tariffs we will be subject to at that point will not be the extreme ones we face currently.
Should no de minimis case come out of left field, and the current extreme tariffs are shut down, then because de minimis is gone, tariffs will still apply, but they will not be as drastic.
The bad news is that the administration looks to have anticipated that their legal basis might be shot down in court, and they appear to have a "Plan B" legal argument which they will roll out next. However, it is a much weaker legal case to make (they've led with their strongest case) so it will likely also be shot down, but not before everything has wound through the courts again.
I hate to say it, but this could go on for quite a long time. And if it should all go away for a bit, in 2027 de minimis is gone, and less extreme tariffs remain, and we will face the same situation, but the amounts won't be quite as drastic.
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Don’t be too sure; an appellate court has ruled them illegal.
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