On the day Force Z was sunk 453 was sitting in Sembawang at the ready with nineteen operational Buffalo's ready to go but Phillips insisted on maintaining radio silence so it received no call to assist until well into the Japanese attack. The squadron was an hour away flight time and they arrived in clear skies just in time to see PoW disappear below the surface. With this cover available, which it was, it is highly unlikely Force Z would have been wiped out.
As well as new pilots, 453 also contained many experienced BoB vets and were more than capable of not only breaking up any bomb/torpedo attack but also inflicting serious loses among the unescorted Japanese Nells and Bettys. Whether or not the attacking force would have had escort had Force Z been seen with air cover is a matter of conjecture however, 453 could easily have called upon fellow Buffalo Sqn 488 RNZAF which was close by at Kallang for reinforcement, and this squadron equally was manned by very capable and experienced pilots including Wilf Clouston and John Mackenzie, both DFC's and with nine and ten victories over France and Britain, and Geoff Fisken who would top score with six kills in the Buffalo over Malaya.
Phillips would have been aware that the one single aerial torpedo hit upon Bismarck seven months earlier which effectively sunk it, was all that was needed to destroy his ships one after the other yet he sailed well into the range of enemy aircraft capable of achieving this, with no cover! In his Memoir about this incident Vigors commented, "I reckon this must have been the last battle in which the navy reckoned they could get along without the RAF. A pretty damned costly way of learning."
During the Malayan campaign though their men fought the best they could their commanders, Admiral Tom Phillips, the British army's General Arthur Percival and the RAF's AVM Conway Pulford, were not up to the task but were never properly logistically supported so it is curious that Churchill was so disappointed with the inevitable defeat.
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I can't remember, but did the Japanese send in A6M Zeros with the Nells and Bettys or just the Nells and Bettys alone?
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I disagree that the outcome would have significantly changed had a carrier been sent with Force Z. Given the small number of fighters embarked, and their vintage, the carrier may well have been sunk too. The best the FAA could muster at this time was a squadron (9 aircraft) of Sea Hurricanes and a squadron of Fulmars (9 aircraft) on Indomitable. The Sea Hurricanes would doubtless have given a good account of themselves, as they did during the Pedestal convoy, but with only one carrier, any damage that limited flying operations would have likely lead to the loss of the ship. Ark Royal was equipped only with Fulmars as fighters - two squadrons of 9 aircraft each - an aircraft described by one Indomitable pilot as "7 tons of uselessness". There was no Martlet (Wildcat) squadron embarked on an RN carrier until Illustrious and Formidable returned to service in 1942, and only Indomitable could operate Sea Hurricanes.
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