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Posted by Bill Oreto on March 26, 2022, 10:57:07, in reply to "Re: State of our Navy"
Some ideas are being floated about upgrading the Flight1, 2 2As and build more Burkes for numbers. Burke is still a capable warship. I do believe you will see the Freedom class LCS hit the boneyard as the new combing gear is not a permanent fix and the fight over that still rages . I also believe after the Ukraine Invasion China will be taken a lot more seriously so I expect the number of purchased Constellation class frigates to increase. Doubt the Zumwalts will stay in the fleet much after their upgrade with hypersonic missiles especially when Block V Virginias will have hypersonic missiles in their load out. Expect the last of the Ticos sent into reserve.
As Ralph stated the acquisition process is slow to bear fruit and when the wrong hulls hit the water you not only lose years but waste billions of dollars. Fortunately our naval weapons acquisition is a little better.
Are there quick fixes yes but costly and up against the parochial thinking of the Navy. Like transfer the Air Force B-1 bomber to the Navy. Offensive Mining, Robotic sub hunting etc.
As of today China is in the drivers seat, they have already won the war at sea without firing a shot. What are we going to do remains a big question of politics, our economy and finding senior naval leaders with vision and a strategy. 
Previous Message
Hi Ralph,
I cited the presidents' budget, not what the Senate is recommending. Also it still has to pass the house and be signed.
The 13 that the Senate budgeted would eventually bring the Navy to 390 ships (13 x 30 years average life).
I question the 2030 date for operational capability for the FFG, as it is to commission in Q3
2026. What are they doing for 4 years. In WWII, ships went from commissioning to the war zone in 2 to 4 months.
Finally, the FFG is based, as you know, on the FREMM Bergamini class - which was done to shorten the process. The new DDG is supposed to be laid down in 2028 (I doubt it). Previous Message
Facebook is nice, and all, but I prefer other sources. USNI has this:
https://news.usni.org/2022/03/09/last-minute-fy-22-728-5b-defense-bill-funds-13-navy-ships-12-f-a-18s-saves-3-lcs-from-decommissioning
Further digging indicates this has now passed the Senate as well, and I presume the president signed it, though I have not actually read that.
The United States budget is not a simple topic. Neither is the US military acquisition process. Both are not straightforward, and summarizing things here is not practical...too vast. It is enough to say that one does not just "snap their fingers," and suddenly generate weapons to "our hearts' desires."
It takes 15 years, on average, to develop a ship program. The new frigate program started about 2015, and the first one is planned to be operational in 2030. I have read articles which complain of the need to "shortcut" and shorten the convoluted process, to speed it up. Attempts by previous groups to do exactly that produced a policy known as "concurrency." This can be summarized as "test while you build." The programs which came out of it, specifically the Ford carriers, LCS, and the F-35, suffered from massive cost issues as a result.
The lesson learned is: We either go fast, and expensive, or more slowly and carefully, but affordably. After the most recent experience, both Congress and the Navy are no longer in the mood to go fast and expensive. That leaves the slow, affordable route...and leaves you, various law makers, and a number of prominent defense analysts all pointing out that this will not win us any races as we face China.
Want more speed? Plan to pay more. How much more are you willing to pay in taxes? We can go faster, but it is not cheap. (See, in China, the financial picture is completely different.) Previous Message
On facebook there was photos of 3 ships being towed to scrapping or other nations from Philly Navy yard the last week. There are only 8 budgeted ships for FY 2022, the Ticonderogas are starting to be decommissioned - probably to scrap or targets.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, China has built 7 cruisers, and 26 type 52D (Aegis) destroyers and building more of both.
Today I learned that China has negotiated a deal with the Solomon Islands for bases - Yes - Guadlecanal, Tulagi, Bougainville - names from history.
Are we ever going to wake up?
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