Obviously, we're not done yet, and the Pro Bowl or Super Bowl might be decent games. I'll try to go back through the schedule and test my hypothesis that hardly any of the games were in doubt.
It looks like the first game was:
Chiefs 30
Texans 0
Well, if one team's not even going to SCORE, and the Chiefs took the lead on the OPENING KICKOFF RETURN, that's pretty good support for my theory. The other weird thing was, if you look at the box score and the statistics, it wasn't that much of a dominant performance by the Chiefs in terms of total offensive yards (314). For reference, the Titans averaged almost 312 yards offensively per game, which was the third lowest total in the league. The Vikings were #29 with about 321 offensive yards per game. They were a division winner, though! Since the Chiefs forced FIVE turnovers, they may not have needed a bunch of long drives to score. Even so, they kicked three field goals, compared to only two offensive touchdowns.
That game was a rematch from the regular season, with the same location. The Chiefs mostly controlled that game (14-0, 14-6, 27-6, Texans scored the last 14 points), although the final score didn't look that way.
To sum up, it went like you would have expected if you only watched the regular season game.
The second game was:
Steelers 18
Bengals 16
I admit to turning this game off, since it was 15-0 by the start of the fourth quarter. The Bengals only scored in that final period. Announcers were saying the Bengals should have won, and I had to read the play-by-play to figure that out. The Bengals took the lead after the two-minute warning. On the next drive, it looks like the Steelers were intercepted on their first play, giving the Bengals possession inside of field goal range. Then, the first play by the Bengals was FUMBLED back to the Steelers, who still needed a 74 yard drive to attempt the winning field goal. In that case, I don't see how you blame the Bengals' offense for the loss - maybe the defense.
Compared to the regular season, these teams split the season series. What stood out was how the road team won both games, meaning this one duplicated the regular season result. In that game, Andy Dalton broke his thumb, but I'm not sure if it changed the outcome. I believe he wasn't back yet to play in this game, either.
The third game was:
Seahawks 10
Vikings 9
I think this game was on TV in the background, but I was doing something else and not paying full attention. Again, it was one team leading the score (9-0) after three quarters, but not an insurmountable lead. The final outcome did have a suspenseful finish, but Blair Walsh MISSED a kick from 27 yards away.
These teams had already played in the regular season, in the same stadium, with the same winner - although that was a blowout. So I would ask, where's the suspense?!!
The fourth game was:
Packers 35
Redskins 18
The game flow here looks like the Redskins scored the first 11 points, and then the Packers finished on a 35-7 run. What has been the deal with streaks of unanswered points by either team in many of these games? I don't think they met in the regular season, so there wasn't any way to make that comparison. You could argue that the Packers had the better record, played in a tougher division, and the Redskins were lucky to qualify for the playoffs. In other words, not really an "upset"?
Then, a new round started. Would any home teams actually win a game?
This was the start of the divisional round:
Chiefs 20
Patriots 27
It looks close, but not quite. There actually was some "back and forth," with the Chiefs managing field goals to the Patriots scoring TDs. The Patriots led by as many as 15 points before the Chiefs traded a TD with them. The Patriots finally scored twice in a row (only field goals), and the Chiefs scored last to make the loss respectable. I don't see a time when the Patriots fell behind in the score.
I don't remember these two teams meeting in the regular season, but I would've favored the Patriots in a home game, after they were 7-1 at Foxboro entering the playoffs.
The next game was:
Packers 20
Cardinals 26 (Overtime)
According to Troy Aikman, this wasn't a well-played game. I count FOUR lead changes, but three of them belonged to the Cardinals. They scored first. The Packers only led toward the middle of the game. They needed a Hail Mary play to even force overtime.
Based on the regular season, what could you have predicted? Well, that game was also played in Arizona, with the Cardinals easily winning by 30 points.
The seventh game was:
Seahawks 24
Panthers 31
This game was probably the most extreme evidence for my argument that the games were imbalanced. The Panthers played a 31-0 shutout in the first half. I turned the game off around the 31-7 mark, and didn't realize that the second half was a 24-0 shutout in Seattle's favor. Still, you could argue that the Seahawks never held a lead, so was the outcome in doubt? The play-by-play shows how an onside kick recovery sealed the game for the Panthers (not even a defensive stand).
These two teams had met in the regular season, but the venue was Seattle. The game flow was much different, too. Seattle led by as much as 20-7 before Carolina made a big comeback. In the end, though, the result matched the regular season.
The next game was:
Steelers 16
Broncos 23
I think I count THREE lead changes in this box score. I sort of remember watching most of the game, but it didn't feel THAT exciting, possibly because of the field goal contest (only one TD through three quarters). The turning point was a bit BLEH, too. The Steelers fumbled, and that was converted into the only TD by the Broncos on a 65 yard drive.
Guess what was unique about this game, though. It reversed the regular season result! That game was played in Pittsburgh, and Peyton Manning didn't get to see the field, so I'm not sure how much you could read into that.
Finally, we had the conference championships:
Patriots 18
Broncos 20
Yes, the score looks close, but when I reviewed the game summary, the Broncos were NEVER behind in the score. They had the first TD. They took the advantage on their second TD drive, and maintained it for the rest of the game. I'm not even sure if this Patriots team would have beaten the Steelers, assuming that had been the matchup. Brady was getting pulled down and flushed from the pocket on most of their drives.
This game had already happened in the regular season, including the same host city. It came down to overtime, but somehow, Brock Osweiler handed off for a long running TD, and the result WAS THE SAME. Following that loss, the Patriots finished the season with a 3-4 record, even losing to a few divisional opponents.
Then, there was this joke:
Cardinals 15
Panthers 49
The Panthers won the first quarter 17-0 and never looked back. I wasn't sure what to expect here, because they hadn't met in the regular season, or had many common opponents. The Cardinals were the best offense from the regular season (yards), but the Panthers may have been the #1 SCORING offense. Defensively, their ranks may have been similar. I really don't know, since I didn't write all of those numbers down to compare them "on paper." Plus, what are the "splits" regarding how well the Cardinals travel to the East coast? I think they had lost to the Steelers earlier in the year. The story of this game looked like turnover ratio. I kept seeing Carson Palmer throwing the ball to someone playing for the Panthers, or taking too many deep attempts into double coverage.
*******
For the Super Bowl, I'm not sure what to think. The Panthers obviously look unstoppable at the moment. I'm not sure if the defense matters, since the Broncos are #1 at limiting total yardage. It didn't really make sense watching that NFC game, either, because Ted Ginn was getting wide open downfield, and he's supposed to be a punt returner who drops passes. You'd have to figure the Panthers are the better running team, and how do you "game plan" for a Cam Newton? He's their #1 running back (especially if you played fantasy last year), who also threw 30-something touchdowns.
By pure records, you'd also expect the Panthers, since they were flirting with a 16-0 season.
I guess I'll see in two weeks, if I watch that game.
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