Quick question for people who follow prediction markets: how do you distinguish news about a market from news about the event itself? I sometimes see an update about changing odds and initially assume that something important must have happened in the real world. But couldn't the numbers also change because participants interpret existing information differently? I'd like to understand this distinction better, especially when reading about elections and other events where uncertainty is high. Are there any articles or resources that explain these ideas in plain English? I'm happy to do some reading; I just don't want to confuse a change in expectations with confirmation that an event will happen.