SOMETHINGS NOT RIGHT. For over 6 weeks now I have sat in numerous meeting with health experts. The vast majority have told me that something isn’t right. Comments like most of the initial models used turned out not to even be in the ballpark. None of the gloom and doom came true, even in the states that did not lock down at all. We were initially told that the 30-day “lockdown” order was so we did not overload the hospitals. Since that did not happen, why are we extending this, breaking the back of our economic engine? Illinois, New York and California were some of the first to “lock down” and “lock down tight” but the states that followed weeks behind or did not “lock down” at all, have seen nothing worse than the states that did. Close to 70% of the workforce was still working, but the statistics out of New York reported by the Wall Street Journal and CNBC business channel show that 66% of all covid-19 cases are coming from people staying at home and only 17% coming from the workforce. Logic would seem to indicate that those numbers should be reversed and we are not seeing everyone who has been out and about becoming stricken with this virus. Researchers out of Stanford and New York are saying that the numbers are actually 50 to 85 times the number actually being reported of people who have contracted the virus. All the roads that businesses can take all lead to bankruptcy. Some, as a last resort to put food on the table for their families, have tried to open up only to be threatened with license forfeiture, fines or jail which only guarantees their bankruptcy. They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many struggle just to make ends meet and tell me that they barely make it with everyone they can get to come through their door. If upon opening they are limited to 50% then they would just end up bleeding money trying to keep employees working and the doors open, so it would be a long painful death, again leading to the inevitable, bankruptcy. I am one that just looks at the numbers and facts so I spent a lot of time gathering information to try and ascertain where the truth is. I think the numbers speak for themselves.
Compared to Illinois, some of the states listed, and I have many more than this, shut down later than Illinois and some did not shut down at all. These figures are all from May 14, 2020.
We’ll use Illinois as a base since they locked down before many of these other states and many are already opening back up. 7 states did not lock down at all. The vast majority has a vulnerable elderly population the same or greater than Illinois.
Illinois has 12.67 million people. They have 84,689 confirmed cases with 3,792 deaths.
Missouri has 6.14 million people. They account for 48% of the Illinois population. At 48%, they should have confirmed cases around 40,651 but actually have only 10,317 and deaths should be 1,820 but actually have only 562.
Florida has 21.48 million people with more elderly than Illinois. They account for 169% of the Illinois population. At 169%, they should have confirmed cases around 143,124 but in reality have only 42,402 and deaths should be 6,408 but actually have only 1,827.
Texas has 29 million people. They account for 229% of the Illinois population. At 229%, they should have confirmed cases around 193,938 but in reality have only 43,851 and deaths should be 8,684 but actually have only 1,216.
Indiana has 6.73 million people. They account for 53% of the Illinois population. At 53%, they should have confirmed cases around 44,885 but in reality have only 25,473 and deaths should be 2,010 but actually have only 1,482.
Washington State, where some say this started has 7.62 million people. They account for 60% of the Illinois population. At 60% they should have confirmed cases around 50,813 but in reality have only 43,851 and deaths should be around 2,275 but actually have only 975.
Kentucky has 4.49 million people. They account for 35% of the Illinois population. At 35%, they should have confirmed cases around 29,461 but in reality have only 7,080 and deaths should be 1,327 but actually have only 326.
Arkansas, which never locked down, has 3.02 million people. They account for 23% of the Illinois population. At 23%, they should have confirmed cases around 19,478 but in reality have only 4,236 and deaths should be at 872 but actually have only 97.
Iowa, another state which never locked down, has 3.16 million people. They account for 25% of the Illinois population. At 25%, they should have confirmed cases around 21,172 but in reality have only 13,289 and deaths should be at 948 but actually have only 271.
Utah, another state which never locked down has 3.2 million people. They account for 25% of the Illinois population. At 25%, they should have confirmed cases around 21,172 but in reality have only 3,370 and deaths should be at 948 but actually have only 48.
Wisconsin has 5.8 million people which accounts for 46% of the Illinois population. At 46%, they should have confirmed cases around 38,957 but in reality only have 11,275 and deaths should be at 1,744 but actually have only 434.
Almost all of the other States have exactly the same results. There were a couple of “outliers” but they were rare. As I drilled down into the “weeds”, the numbers showed the same results. I have tried to present, without getting into the “weeds”, what the numbers are. All the physicians I’ve talked with are all telling me we should not have locked down unless it was targeted to our elderly only. There is absolutely no reason for this. They’ve further stated that these viruses mutate to the point where, at times, they can be deadly to the population and they see this about every 8 years or so. They have asked if we are going to try and lock down the country every 8 years or so from now on. They’ve told me we should be letting our immune system do what our immune system does. The thought process leading to the idea that this buys time for a vaccine or therapy is flawed. Scientists, in 70 years, only have a vaccine that is 50% effective for the flu and no real therapies other than some that may shorten the duration a few days. Physicians have told me that some of these deaths being reported as COVID-19, are not. Some people may not like what the numbers show, but the numbers are the numbers and two plus two always equals four. Something is not right.
Re: Interesting
Posted by Wally Bunker on May 20, 2020, 7:46 pm, in reply to "Interesting"
The early models could not have been more wrong and evrything has just escalated from that point as we continued using those flawed numbers. With some states playing games with the actual covid death numbers it is going to create some crazy patterns.