The report, released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), said that the U.S. government has encountered 144 UFOs — or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), as the government refers to them — since 2004, with nearly all remaining a mystery.
The nine-page study was originally commissioned as part of a provision in the coronavirus relief package enacted by former President Trump last year following a push from lawmakers who cited interest in investigating a surge in UFO sightings by U.S. military aircraft.
While the report offers a glimpse into the ongoing studies into UFOs by a federal task force, the findings have prompted even more questions and speculation on potential explanations for the sightings.
Vast majority of UFO cases remain unexplained
The Office of Naval Intelligence's UFO task force said in the report that while it was able to identify one of the more than 140 objects with “high confidence,” the vast majority of reported encounters remain riddled with mystery.
The task force said the one identified object was “a large, deflating balloon” but listed several possible explanations for the other objects, including airborne clutter such as birds and “recreational unmanned aerial vehicles” as well as natural atmospheric phenomena such as ice crystals and “thermal fluctuations that may register on some infrared and radar systems.”
The report also listed among possible explanations “developments and classified programs by U.S. entities” as well as possible technologies deployed by Russia, China or other countries.
Intelligence officials said that they grouped other UAP in a category labeled “other” to mark objects that require “additional scientific knowledge to successfully collect on, analyze and characterize some of them.”
Stops short of ruling out extraterrestrial life
While the report offers a range of possible explanations for the sightings, it does not specifically mention or rule out the possibility of extraterrestrial life, a phenomenon that has long captured the public interest and has gained increased attention with more probes into UFO sightings.
The report noted that in a “limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics,” though it conceded that the “observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.”
The task force also identified some patterns in the UAP observations, including similarities in “shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion” as well as the fact that some UAP sightings “tended to cluster around U.S. training and testing grounds,” which it noted “may result from a collection bias as a result of focused attention, greater numbers of latest-generation sensors operating in those areas, unit expectations, and guidance to report anomalies.”
While the ODNI did not make any specific mention of the possibility of life beyond Earth, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) said Friday that the report “marks the beginning of efforts to understand and illuminate what is causing these risks to aviation in many areas around the country and the world.”
Raises specter of advanced tech from China, Russia
One possible explanation mentioned in the report was that the unidentified objects could be advanced technologies developed by adversaries such as China or Russia.
The theory has drawn increased attention recently as both China and Russia have invested substantially in hypersonic technology, suggesting that perhaps their military technology has evolved far beyond the capabilities of the U.S.
The Friday report noted that a handful of the reported UAP “demonstrate advanced technology,” including appearing “to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion.”
The report also said that the federal task force has some data that seemingly shows “UAP demonstrating acceleration or a degree of signature management,” with military aircraft systems processing radio frequency energy associated with UAP sightings in a small number of cases.
However, the ODNI noted that it lacks enough data “to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary.”
Objects could pose a threat to national security, pilot safety
The possibility of foreign adversaries being behind the UAP also brings with it potential national security threats, the ODNI noted in Friday’s report.
The document specifically noted the possibility of safety threats in airspace, with the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force reporting 11 “documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP.”
“Depending on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting,” the office said in the report.
With limited data available on the specifics of the observed UAP, the ODNI said that it will continue to monitor “for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s [U.S. government’s] most advanced sensor systems.”
Future sightings will rely on more data, resources
Intelligence officials said that the ability to detect and study future sightings will depend largely on the level of investment in continued research that would “allow for a more sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding.”
The intelligence office said that the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force's (UAPTF) long-term goal is “to widen the scope of its work to include additional UAP events documented by a broader swath of USG personnel and technical systems in its analysis.”
“As the dataset increases, the UAPTF’s ability to employ data analytics to detect trends will also improve,” the report said.
The UAPTF, which was formed last year, is expected to develop artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms “to cluster and recognize similarities and patterns in features of the data points,” including if the UAP match characteristics of known aerial objects such as “weather balloons, high-altitude or super-pressure balloons, and wildlife,” the report stated.
While the intelligence office noted that most of the current UFO data is from reporting by the U.S. Navy, the UAPTF is looking to “standardize incident reporting across U.S. military services and other government agencies to ensure all relevant data is captured with respect to particular incidents and any U.S. activities that might be relevant.”