Posted by Iranian on October 4, 2007, 3:47 am, in reply to "Israel sends Iran a message with Syrian airstrike " --Previous Message--
66.209.102.5
Hey Ugly is really Rough, he really does say Ugly.
: By Ilene R. Prusher
: Wed Sep 19, 4:00 AM ET
:
: Jerusalem - It's the event that
: everyone here – and no one – is
: talking about.
:
: Israeli officials have neither
: confirmed nor denied the target of
: its Sept. 6 airstrike in Syria. Was
: it, as some media outlets reported,
: an attack on the run-of-the-mill
: munitions being transferred through
: Syria on their way to Hizbullah, or
: was it a strike on nuclear
: components supplied by North Korea?
:
: Either way, Israel's chief of
: military intelligence announced that
: Israel's deterrence had "been
: restored."
:
: But unusually quiet, regional
: analysts note, are moderate Arab
: states and international players who
: would, in the past, have been quick
: to condemn any act of Israeli
: aggression against a neighbor.
:
: Amid the state-imposed silence from
: officialdom here on what exactly
: Israeli bombs struck and why
: (Israelis are discussing it only on
: the basis of leaks in Washington),
: observers see several key messages.
:
: First, Israel was able to strike at
: Syria without suffering any
: consequences, military or
: diplomatic. Second, Israel might
: take steps to fulfill one of its
: ultimate security objectives, which
: is to prevent other countries in the
: Middle East from obtaining nuclear
: capability, especially those overtly
: hostile to Israel. Third, if a
: Syrian nuclear installation can be
: targeted by Israel without any
: international outcry – and with the
: tacit backing of allies in the US
: and Turkey – Iran's nuclear
: facilities are looking more likely
: than ever to be next.
:
: "Some analysts think that it's
: a message to the Iranian regime that
: Israel can strike anywhere in the
: region. And it shows us the extent
: of cooperation between Israel and
: Turkey, because Turkey didn't
: condemn the attacks until now,"
: says Emad Gad, an expert in Israeli
: affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for
: Political and Strategic Studies in
: Cairo. Israel dropped fuel tanks in
: Turkey near their border with Syria
: as part of the operation.
:
: "I think some Arab countries
: like Saudi Arabia and some other
: circles felt happy about the Israeli
: strike. Still, the main message is
: to the Syrian side," Dr. Gad
: says, pointing to Israel's
: frustration over Syria's assistance
: to Hizbullah, Hamas, and other
: Palestinian militant factions
: operating in Syria. Many in Egypt
: and elsewhere in the region see
: Israel's strike, when put in the
: context of the international
: community's standoff with Iran, as a
: step toward a bigger confrontation.
:
: "We are heading toward what
: will probably be a European-US
: strike targeting the Iranian
: project, and people here are afraid
: of what the Iranian reaction will
: be," he adds. "It will be
: hard for them to hit America, and so
: anything that's seen as an American
: installation in the region could be
: a target."
:
: Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born,
: Tel Aviv-based analyst and author of
: "The Nuclear Sphinx of
: Tehran," says the muted
: reaction to Israel's strike has Iran
: quite concerned.
:
: "What worries Iran most is that
: the international community hasn't
: condemned Israel," says Mr.
: Javedanfar. "If they're not
: saying anything about Syria, and
: Syria's not as much on the outs,
: what does it say for Iran?"
:
: He says the operation had several
: goals in mind. "One, get Iran
: to come back and start negotiating
: seriously and put better offers on
: the table. Two, restore Israel's
: deterrence to what it was before
: last year's war with Lebanon. I
: think it has done that, in a big
: way, because Syria has not
: responded."
:
: Not so fast, others say. Deterrence,
: one of the most important concepts
: in Israeli defense, is also one of
: its most amorphous. The Haaretz
: newspaper Tuesday criticized
: Israel's Director of Military
: Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin,
: for having declared Israel's
: deterrent capability restored in one
: fell swoop.
:
: "A successful strike – if it
: did occur – could serve as a
: statement: anyone who places nuclear
: weapons near Israel's borders or
: within striking distances will have
: to pay a price," the paper's
: editorial read. But, it continued,
: "Israel's deterrence is
: measured day in and day out in the
: western Negev as well. Hundreds of
: Qassam rockets from Gaza strike the
: region every month, with Israel
: unable to come up with a deterrent
: response."
:
: All of this comes at a time when
: there seemed to be increased signs
: of hope for an Israeli-Syrian
: rapprochement. The possibility of
: the two countries revisiting the
: negotiating table, abandoned more
: than seven years ago, has been in
: the offing in recent months, though
: the Bush administration has been
: encouraging Israel to focus on the
: Palestinian peace track instead.
:
: Hebrew University professor Moshe
: Maoz, a supporter of the potential
: for Israeli-Syrian peace, worries
: that a strike could further
: radicalize Syria.
:
: "This could restore deterrence,
: sure, but it might further undermine
: the chances of peace with Syria, and
: push them closer to the Shiite
: axis," he says. "Israel is
: pushing Syria, along with Bush, into
: the hands of Iran, by refusing to
: talk to them." In fact, some
: other Iran analysts say Israel's
: strike was a kind of victory for
: Iranian President Mahmoud
: Ahmedinajad, who has been able to
: turn to Syria sanctimoniously and
: say that his " 'advice' about
: Israel not wanting peace was true
: all along," Javedanfar
: explains.
:
: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
: told reporters this week that he was
: ready to make peace with Syria if
: the conditions ripen, and that there
: was no reason to rule out dialogue.
:
: "The Israeli deterrent track
: has always been kind of divorced
: from the political track, and
: they're always willing to put one
: ahead of the other if they think
: it's something urgent," says
: Kenneth Pollack at the Brookings
: Institution in Washington.
: "They obviously knew about this
: site for a long time; they didn't
: discover it last week. It underlines
: a point that everyone knew: Israel
: doesn't want other countries to
: acquire nuclear weapons and it will
: do whatever it thinks is necessary
: to stop it," he adds.
:
: "But no one knows what the
: Syrians were up to," he says.
: "People are wondering if it was
: a very nascent nuclear program and
: no one wants to see that."
:
:
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