Posted by Rough Rider on February 8, 2007, 8:17 am, in reply to "Re: US – Iran Situation Analysis" --Previous Message--
68.107.62.23
Thanks, doing fine. Moved to San Diego recently. May be going up to Alaska this summer for a year long Masters program. So between now and then we should find some time to go out for sushi?
: WOW you are long winded today whats up
: Roughly how have you been.
:
: --Previous Message--
: That was quite a response. Very good
: with a lot of effort. I can see why
: you would view some things like you
: do but I have to disagree with some
: things.
:
: The US government can not invade
: Iran because we have reduced the
: size of the US military. To occupy
: Iran the US would need at least one
: million troops. Currently, US army
: numbers just over 500,000 ground
: troops. These of course are spread
: over various continents and
: countries. And of course, the
: obvious, is that we are engaged in
: two wars. The US can not invade and
: occupy another country (of Iran's
: size) without putting the US on a
: war footing. The US population will
: not will not make that kind of
: sacrifice unless the country is
: under immediate threat.
:
: Second, Iran is not really
: self-sufficient as you would claim.
: Products are sub-standard. What
: items Iran does produce are designs
: from the US and Russia and others.
: The old Paykan was really the 1967
: Hillman Hunter produced by the
: British. The Shahab missle is based
: upon a North Korean design, etc. The
: point here is that Iran is not
: self-sufficient in its abilities to
: create something from scratch.
:
: Also, when you factor in the raw
: materials that Iran must buy from
: other countries to produce those and
: other items, Iran would be seriously
: under threat if ever a real embargo
: was to be implemented.
: Unfortunately, there are countries
: that are unscrupulous in this regard
: and are willing to make money at
: others expense. Related to that are
: countries that want to challenge
: America anyway possible. In fact,
: America is being challenged on many
: fronts by countries that hate our
: way of life and our status in the
: world.
:
: The military goods of Iran are not a
: challenge to American training and
: technology. What is a challenge to
: America is Iran's battle of wills.
: Politics to be exact. America's
: political will power is
: over-stretched and much diminished.
: It's not about Bush's "staying
: the course" strategy but
: actually implimenting the correct
: strategy for what needs to be done.
: Strategies are not written in stone
: but need to be constantly updated,
: something that Bush has failed to
: recognize. Iraq has been coddled
: beyond limit and Iraqis do not the
: kindness that a so-called occupation
: army has treated them. Islamic
: ideology and cultural traditions are
: too deeply ingrained for a
: "hearts and minds"
: strategy to work in the short term.
:
: I don't think that I am going to go
: into whether Iran is a backwards
: country or not, (though I think
: you'd agree that its main religion
: does prevent it from becoming
: greater than it is).
:
: Now if war did come between Iran and
: America, I see a slightly different
: scenario. The ability of the groups
: you mentioned that Iran supports are
: limited in training, geography, and
: the current struggles they are
: currently engaged in. Sure they can
: hit targets in their locals but
: their each is limited. A hit on the
: US mainland is of course always a
: possiblity (with many attempts you
: are bound to get a hit), but that
: also entails raising the ante in US
: retaliation. An attack on the US
: means a public outcry that
: galvanizes the leaders into a very
: serious reply that brings the
: reality of American power onto the
: scene.
:
: Now in terms of the war, as I said
: before, the US can not really invade
: Iran do to manpower shortage and the
: lack of politcal will. The war will
: likely be fought largely with cruise
: missles and airpower. I see limited
: commando operations. Obviously the
: US will go after military targets to
: degrade Iran's ability to strike at
: US targets. This will also be the
: chance to take out, or at least set
: back Iran's nuclear industry. Iran's
: general population will largely
: remain outside the scope of the war,
: unless they are dragged to targets
: by the Basij to ensure a high
: casulty rate and thus turn world
: attention against the war (not that
: this would be necessary for them to
: do).
:
: The US will not win militarily if
: Iran does not capitulate, since
: there will not be a significant
: ground invasion. But the US will not
: be defeated militarily either. The
: US will just go after target after
: target and Iran will come out for
: the worse in the exchange since we
: can hit her directly while she has
: to employ indirect means of hitting
: America. But if things escalate to
: the point where Iran hits American
: soil, then there will be a much
: increased chance of Iranian quality
: of life decreasing. Iranian hits on
: US forces in Iraq are left open to
: interpretation and I won't bother
: since the US political scene is a
: bit self-destructive in this regard.
:
: I agree with you on other points
: such as the US sponsoring the wrong
: groups and the 5th column stuff with
: Hezbollah. True enough we are
: heavily engaged in both Iraq and
: Afghanistan but you seem to forget
: that there are twelve aircraft
: carriers with all the cruisers and
: destroyers that come with them.
: These can by themselves inflict the
: needed level of destruction that is
: reguired. Whether it be that the
: targets range from Iran's military
: forces and nuclear sites to
: completely destroying the country,
: these units are capable for the job.
: Just for a view of the potency of
: these forces, China is not
: forcasted, at it current rate of
: development, to inflict a defeat on
: the US 7th Fleet until the year
: 2050.
:
: But anyway, just because I don't
: completely agree with your analysis
: (it is very good and lengthy), I
: also care for Iran and hope that
: none of this comes to pass. But like
: Iranians in Iran would come to their
: countries defence, I come to my
: countries defense too. Thanks for
: taking up the subject!
:
:
:
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