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If you plug it n the fixtures and run different result models
Posted by neilw* on February 12, 2018, 9:49 am, in reply to "Its looking like it might take more than 40 points to stay up this year."
You clump in the 38-39 point range. Yes, we could go as high as 43 (the highest I got in 10 different simulations) but 40 was safe in 7 out of 10 runs and on the eight it came down to goal difference with 3 teams on 40 points. Obviously several teams having more than one freak victory against a top 6 team would raise the bar slightly but I’d still err on the 40 or under if I was a betting man.
: I'm glad we have a decent run of fixtures to
: put things to bed but if I was a fan of the
: bottom three I'd be very worried right now.