Posted by David on February 27, 2008, 8:28 pm, in reply to "There are reasons to vote Obama -- just not good ones"
89.100.103.209
Since it covers basically the same theme, a variation of yesterday's email...
Dear Kevin Myers,
You claim in today's Irish Independent ('There are reasons to vote Obama -- just not good ones') [1], similarly to Dr. Rory Miller in yesterday's Irish Times [2], that the illegal invasion and continued occupation of Iraq has become a 'success'. What criteria did you use to measure this success?
While violence has recently begun to reduce, due in part to increased ethnic cleansing and internal and external displacement, it must be noted that this 'success' is still comparable to 2005 levels. The 'success' of this relative reduction can only be measured in terms of what it is hoped can be achieved, thereby differentiating what you or I might want from what the occupiers and instigators of the escalation in troop numbers want. Certainly the effect of the escalation points towards a successful division of Iraq along religious and ethnic lines, as opposed the establishment of a free and independent state.
While the occupiers have been successful in pitting militia against militia, the occupying forces remain the predominant target of insurgent and resistance attacks, partly endorsed by Iraqi opinion - with just over half of Iraqis deeming it "acceptable" to attack U.S. and coalition forces [3] [4]. A December 2006 report to US Congress noted, "in the past three months, the total number of attacks increased 22%. Coalition forces remained the target of the majority of attacks (68%), but the overwhelming majority of casualties were suffered by Iraqis." [5] Eight months later, and seven months after the escalation, the BBC reported that Iraqi civilian deaths were continuing to rise [6]. A further four months later a December 2007 report to Congress noted, "the number of security incidents has fallen significantly and is now at levels last seen in the summer of 2005." [7]
Further, this 'success' was brought about not just by the escalation of troop numbers in early 2007, but by an increase in aerial bombardment. By the end of October 2007 the U.S. military had increased airstrikes four-fold with "1,140 airstrikes in the first nine months of the year compared with 229 in all of [2006]" [8]. 'Stability' thus comes in the form of 500lb devices, [9] with 10 times the explosive poundage as the average suicide bomber [10].
This escalation has also 'coincided' with, or was a direct cause of, mass exodus of Iraqis to neighbouring countries. The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, estimates that "more than 4.2 million Iraqis have left their homes, many in dire need of humanitarian care. Of these, some 2.2 million Iraqis are displaced internally, while more than 2 million have fled to neighbouring states, particularly Syria and Jordan." [11] Leaving whole neighbourhoods and communities ethnically cleansed and militias left in control of large swathes of the country.
The evidence suggests that the occupiers presence actually sustains the violence, not diminishes it - concurring with your description of Obama's stance. The evidence also supports the conspicuously ignored opinions of the vast majority of Iraqis who believe the US occupation is the principle barrier to peace. The Washington Post reported only two months ago, confirming numerous other similar polls, that "Iraqis of all sectarian and ethnic groups believe that the U.S. military invasion is the primary root of the violent differences among them, and see the departure of "occupying forces" as the key to national reconciliation." [12]
A thorough interpretation of all the available information does not reveal a success of any sort. So how did you come to your conclusion?
Yours sincerely,
David Manning
1. http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/there-are-reasons-to-vote-obama--just-not-good-ones-1300402.html
2.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/0226/1203619432264.html
3. http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=2954716&page=1
4. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5052138.stm
5. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010Quarterly-Report-20061216.pdf
6. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6928586.stm
7. http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/FINAL-SecDef%20Signed-20071214.pdf
8. http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-10-21-airstrikes_N.htm
9. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article783959.ece
10. http://www.williambowles.info/guests/2005/suicide_2.html
11. http://www.unhcr.org/iraq.html
12. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/18/AR2007121802262_pf.html
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