Posted by bobbistorm on 5/28/2009, 11:59 am, in reply to "First TD of the Season"

love it.. love it in that it was obviously pulling it's act together and hard to deny and only give it a yellow circle amazing --Previous Message-- : 000 : WTNT41 KNHC 281450 : TCDAT1 : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER : 1 : NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL : AL012009 : 1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009 : : DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF : LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS : BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING : WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C : WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. DVORAK : CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z : WERE T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY. AN AMSU : PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE THE CENTER ON : THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. : BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING : UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE : FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. : : THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. THE : DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY : STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER : TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS : BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND : THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY : GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 : HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LOSE : DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. : : VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS : LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING OFF THE : NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS. AS LONG AS IT : REMAINS THERE SOME STRENGTHENING IS : POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES : NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM : STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST INPUT TO THE : MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD. AS A RESULT...THE : OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM : TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY : OR SO. AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF : CONVECTION...AND TROPICAL : CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED. : : FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS : : INITIAL 28/1500Z 37.3N 71.0W 30 KT : 12HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W 35 KT : 24HR VT 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W 35 KT : 36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W 30 KT : 48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 25 : KT...EXTRATROPICAL : 72HR VT 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 25 : KT...EXTRATROPICAL : 96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED : : $$ : FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN : :