Posted by aquaRN on 5/27/2009, 8:56 am, in reply to "Severe weather returns to the CONUS this weekend"

Maybe the poor Weather Channel team will catch a tornado yet... --Previous Message-- : : : DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK : NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK : 0401 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009 : : VALID 301200Z - 041200Z : : ...DISCUSSION... : GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST : THROUGH DAY 6...AFTER WHICH : SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO : INCREASE. OVERALL : HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT AT A : FEW DAYS OF HEIGHTENED : SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS : AND VICINITY. BOTH MODELS : CONTINUE TO FORECAST NW FLOW ACROSS THE : CENTRAL US AND INTO THE : MIDWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF A ERN NOAM : UPPER LOW/TROUGH FOR DAY 4 : /SAT. MAY 30/. AS A PORTION OF THIS : TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD AND : TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT DAY 5...FLOW : ALOFT BECOMES MORE : NWLY/WLY...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE : FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE : RELATIVELY FAST FLOW FIELD OVER THE : CENTRAL AND NRN : PLAINS/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. FLOW ALOFT : SLACKENS A BIT DAY 6...BUT : BOTH MODELS PROG A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO : ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS : WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL. : : DAY 4 /SAT. MAY 30/...IT APPEARS THAT : STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS : THE NEB VICINITY...AS AMPLE : MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR : AND S OF A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE : RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL : CONUS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND INTO ONE OR : MORE MCS LATE IN THE : DAY...AND THEN ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE : UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE : SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD -- WITH : DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE A : MAIN THREAT. : : DAY 5 /SUN. MAY 31/...A COLD FRONT IS : FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SEWD : ACROSS THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR : STORM DEVELOPMENT -- : PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY : REGION -- WITHIN DESTABILIZING : AFTERNOON AIRMASS. AGAIN...ONE OR MORE : MCS SHOULD EVOLVE BY : EVENING...WITH A MORE EWD STORM TRACK : INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. : : : DAY 6 /MON. JUN. 1/...CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS : THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS : HINTED AT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF : THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT : MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS -- : IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING : SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE FLOW ALOFT : SHOULD BE WEAKER...A : PARTICULARLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS : ACROSS THE KS/OK REGION SHOULD : OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY-WEAKER FLOW : FIELD...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL : POSSIBLY INCLUDING TORNADOES NEAR AND NE : OF THE LOW/INVOF THE WARM : FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS : THE KS/NRN OK/MO VICINITY. : : ..GOSS.. 05/27/2009 : :