Posted by JAC on 5/21/2009, 10:54 pm

PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAY2009// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9N 88.1E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. EARLIER IMAGERY SHOWED THE AREA HAD MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS, BUT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE CIRCULATION IN LAST 12 HOURS. A 211138Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE LLCC WITH A BROAD REGION OF 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 211126Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.