Posted by SC on 5/18/2009, 11:59 am, in reply to "Currently wimping out - but could see a little development in the Bahamas"

This doesn'tmake me happy! http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009051806&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation --Previous Message-- : : : : SREF and GFS are showing what I believe is a : realistic forecast for our much anticipated : TC early this week. : : The Cuba convection has dissipated : significantly over the last 24 hours from : cloud tops of 45k-ft now down to about : 35k-ft with little rain. : : LI values this morning are marginal for MCS : maintenance - running from 0 to -2. : : However, it is moving north into the : Bahamas. : : Here air is more unstable and will : destabilize further today. : : Convection could flair this afternoon and : the system could deepen. : : The one thing this has going for it is an : excellent UL outflow which can overcome some : shear. : : So, this could develop a bit. : : SPREF and GFS show some development in the : Bahamas before making landfall along the mid : to north shore of the east-FL coast late : Wednesday or early Thusday. : : Hey, a warm-core weakly spinning up two : weeks before offical start of the season is : not too shabby. : : Most impressive part is the deep TUTT that : formed in the mid-Atlantic this time of : year. : : : : : : : : : : :