Posted by JAC on 5/18/2009, 8:16 am

SREF and GFS are showing what I believe is a realistic forecast for our much anticipated TC early this week. The Cuba convection has dissipated significantly over the last 24 hours from cloud tops of 45k-ft now down to about 35k-ft with little rain. LI values this morning are marginal for MCS maintenance - running from 0 to -2. However, it is moving north into the Bahamas. Here air is more unstable and will destabilize further today. Convection could flair this afternoon and the system could deepen. The one thing this has going for it is an excellent UL outflow which can overcome some shear. So, this could develop a bit. SPREF and GFS show some development in the Bahamas before making landfall along the mid to north shore of the east-FL coast late Wednesday or early Thusday. Hey, a warm-core weakly spinning up two weeks before offical start of the season is not too shabby. Most impressive part is the deep TUTT that formed in the mid-Atlantic this time of year.