Posted by JAC on 5/17/2009, 10:40 pm, in reply to "Easy to see mid-level circulation on visible"

Definitely looks like a rotating MCS or MCV. Convection has actually died off a bit over the last 24 hours. Cloud tops have dropped from 45k-ft to about 35k-ft. Rain rate has also dropped as well. It looks like this is due to the fact shear has dropped around it as well. Mostly likely due to UL divergence of the MCV. It was 30 knots about 12 hours ago, now its about 20 knots. Reduced shear actually weakens an MCS / MCV. MIMIC-TPW shows a concentration of Theta-E approaching the convection. This could flare the convection and since shear is dropping, this could transition to a TC if it gets over open water. COC is over currently over Cuba. Best chances is if it gets over to the Cat5 generator.