Posted by Mike Doran on 5/16/2009, 4:48 pm, in reply to "What about the FL forecasted TC this coming week?"

JAC as you know I consider electrics over the oceans the most important mechanism and place to see storm organizations over longer time periods than the models. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/ 9-May-2009 1009.11 1010.80 -24.65 2.78 4.19 10-May-2009 1009.46 1009.95 -15.45 1.26 3.76 11-May-2009 1009.38 1010.05 -16.83 0.12 3.28 12-May-2009 1009.53 1009.55 -11.85 -0.74 2.87 13-May-2009 1009.69 1009.30 -8.71 -1.81 2.56 14-May-2009 1011.19 1008.60 8.14 -2.39 2.52 15-May-2009 1012.49 1009.20 13.50 -2.35 2.59 16-May-2009 1012.79 1010.00 9.67 -2.26 2.65 The patterns we have seen all spring have had a lot to say about two huge new dams in the Pacific, Three Gorge and El Cajon in Mexico. You know I have been talking about these two dams, anyone who reads what I have posted. And right now that sub tropical jet flowing over the EPAC waters where the dammed river by El Cajon flows--has IMHO created drought conditions in Texas. Between Three Gorge and El Cajon, California is dry, too. To answer your more immediate question, however, look at the Pacific High. It's massive and its hot. It's just like pumping up a bike tire--it warms it up, and it's been getting pumped up. Now regional electrics--as the WPAC discharges and the SOI rises, the potential difference over the EPAC rises. That is why in the five day you see strikes concentrated globally over the Americas. Couplings then occur on the eastern side of the north and south Pacific. Only, with El Cajon what we aren't seeing is an EPAC storm. That means there isn't a low impedence location there and all the lighting over the Americas won't cause electron precip to organize over the EPAC and enhance couplings. Instead, it goes elsewhere, such as the cloud organizations that create the Pacific high, or the barotropical conditions that the models are picking up to become a Florida TS. After three days, the Pacific high will deflate, and the electrical couplings will discharge in a way, and then the regional displacement current won't flow west, it will flow to Florida--and that means we could get a freak early storm. From my view I won't rule it out.