Posted by JAC on 4/29/2009, 10:13 pm, in reply to "96W in South China Sea looks good for development"

WTPN21 PGTW 292300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 225 NM RADIUS OF 13.6N 117.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 117.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291109Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED AND HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY. IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC AND INCREASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE, CREATING A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 302300Z.// NNNN